In an age when image is all-important, the word "modern"
enjoys a high approval rating. Most people associate "modern"
with progress and change for the better, as in the expression
"modern conveniences."
Thus, when hobbyists think about or talk about the
modern coin market, they tend to focus on latter-day
developments that make it more convenient to buy and sell
rare coins--computers and computer networks, for example,
that make their coin transactions quicker, easier and more
efficient.
There isn't any doubt that computers and other modern
innovations have had a dramatic impact on the coin market.
Independent third-party certification is yet another
development that has changed the way people buy, sell and
hold rare coins, to cite just one more example.
At the same time, however, advances in knowledge aren't
always accompanied by corresponding quantum leaps in wisdom.
Often, in fact, technological breakthroughs actually give
rise to new misconceptions--so that modern-day advantages end
up being compromised by myths and old wives' tales more
suited to the Dark Ages than they are to an Age of
Enlightenment.
We've seen a marvelous marriage of coins and computers,
but that union has given birth to maddening misinformation.
So, too, has the "slab revolution." And this worrisome
downside is threatening to undo some of the good that these
modern advances have wrought.
In order to combat misconceptions, we first have to
separate fact from fiction. Knowledge of the truth is the
first step in the process of gaining wisdom.
With that in mind, I've drawn up a list of the top 10
myths in the modern rare-coin marketplace.
Myth No. 1: Most certified coins trade sight-unseen.
With the advent of the slab and the establishment of the
Certified Coin Exchange (CCE), an illusion was created that
coins independently certified and encapsulated by either the
Numismatic Guaranty Corporation of America (NGC), the
Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS) or ANACS all trade
fluidly on the Certified Coin Exchange.
Certain generic, fungible coins (coins that are
considered interchangeable) do trade in this fashion; common-
date Mint State-65 Morgan silver dollars and Walking Liberty
half dollars, for example, tend to be commoditized and often
change hands sight-unseen. But, for the most part, beauty is
still in the eye of the beholder, and most certified coins
trade on a sight-seen basis.
A numerical grading system doesn't take the place of
personal taste, and most collectors buying coins demand to
see them first. Dealers are no different--and, as shrewd
businessmen, they recognize that it pays to show off their
merchandise when it's attractive. A sight-unseen offer
represents an offer for coins of the lowest common
denominator in a given grade, not for coins a cut above the
rest.
Myth No. 2: Toning is to silver coins what rust is to
iron.
This unfortunate--and potentially harmful--myth has been
perpetrated, and perpetuated, by self-styled experts on coin
chemistry. They equate the beautiful toning on lovely silver
coins with the unsightly rusting of iron, and warn collectors
not to buy toned silver coins because they are "damaged."
Such warnings are not only baseless but also potentially
hazardous to hobbyists' financial well-being. They might well
induce collectors who already own toned coins to "dip" those
coins in a mild acidic solution to remove the layer of toning
(and thereby presumably halt any further "damage"). In point
of fact, however, beautifully toned coins are widely--and
correctly--perceived to be natural and desirable, while
DIPPED coins are the ones that have suffered surface damage,
losing not only their luster but sometimes even part of their
value. Thus, in warning about a problem that doesn't even
exist, the alarmists could be creating a very real one.
The process that causes silver coins to tone or tarnish
is altogether different from the one that causes iron to
rust. What's more, the results are very different, too.
My father, Harvey C. Travers, is a chemical engineer
with a master's degree from the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, and he has carried out extensive studies on this
subject. Here's what he has to say:
"When moisture reacts with iron, there is an all-out
destructive attack of the metal. However, silver is
relatively inactive and does not react with oxygen in the
air, even at high temperatures. It reacts with certain
chemical compounds, notably those containing sulfur, if a
catalyst is present--moisture, for example. But even then,
the reaction stops short of an all-out destructive attack. In
the case of silver coins, the sulfur causes a coating to form
on the surface of the metal--but far from being destructive,
this coating is actually protective. If it develops quickly
and tends to be unsightly, we call it tarnish; if it happens
more slowly and attractively, we call it toning.
"Unlike iron, which loses metal when it rusts, silver is
not eaten away--that is to say, corroded--by this limited
chemical reaction. When iron rusts, it spalls and loses
metal; when silver tones or tarnishes, there is no loss of
metal."
Myth No. 3: Certification services grade coins by
computer.
A few years ago, with much fanfare and hoopla, the
Professional Coin Grading Service introduced The Expert, a
computer which, according to claims in PCGS literature, would
be able to grade coins accurately on a systematic basis.
Initially, it was programmed exclusively to grade Morgan
dollars. But after just a year or so of service, The Expert
was "temporarily" retired, and the Irvine, California,
certification service now grades coins strictly by means of
human experts' eyes, not by computer.
Myth No. 4: Slab coin holders are vacuum-sealed and
contain no air.
For the most part, coins that are encapsulated by
grading services are sonically sealed, not vacuum-sealed.
According to NGC's founder, John Albanese, sonic sealing is
accomplished by using high-pitched sounds which convert their
energy into heat to fuse the two halves of a hard plastic
slab together as one. In order to vacuum-seal a coin in a
plastic holder, Albanese says, it would be necessary to press
the plastic right up against the coin, much as the plastic
wrapping is pressed against a frozen turkey in a supermarket.
And this, he says, would damage the coin. Thus, for the most
part, slabs are airtight but not air-free.
Myth No. 5: A rare coin's value is directly proportional
to its population.
With the introduction of population and census reports
by the certification services, we've seen greatly increased
reliance on the data revealed by these reports. Clearly, this
information is highly useful. Just as clearly, though, many
people are blinded by the numbers in these reports and think
they never lie. Well, often the numbers DO lie.
Many factors determine the value of a coin, and the
number in a population report is just one of them. It's
helpful, of course, to know how many examples of that
particular coin have been certified in that particular grade,
and this is what we get from a population or census report.
But other factors also come into play: the number of pieces
available that HAVEN'T been certified, for example, and the
number of collectors who are interested in that particular
series. Then again, far from indicating great rarity, a low
population actually might reflect extreme commonness: A high-
mintage modern coin, for instance, might have a low
population in one of these reports simply because hardly
anyone has bothered to submit any pieces for certification.
Having little or no premium value, they aren't worth the
bother and expense of being certified.
Myth No. 6: Population reports can be relied upon 100
percent.
Population reports are imperfect reflections of rarity.
People often crack coins out of holders and resubmit them in
search of a higher grade--and each time the same coin is
resubmitted, the population report counts it as a new
submission.
It's perfectly understandable why many coins are
resubmitted, for small deviations in grade often result in
great variations in price. Let's say you have a magnificent
Morgan dollar that's beaming with luster, but a certification
service sends it back to you with a grade of just Mint State-
64 because of a tiny scratch on the reverse. And let's say
that coin is worth $200 in MS-64 and $1,000 in MS-65. You'd
probably crack it out of that MS-64 holder and resubmit it in
hopes of getting a grade of 65. And if that coin was worth
$10,000 in MS-65, rather than just $1,000, you might submit
it a dozen times or more in your attempt to get it upgraded.
All this makes perfect sense from the standpoint of the
person submitting a coin to a grading service. It doesn't
make sense at all, though, to rely upon the resulting
population or census report as an accurate and infallible
barometer of that coin's true rarity. All too often,
resubmissions skew population reports--sometimes quite
dramatically.
Myth No. 7: The American Numismatic Association needs to
spend large sums of money distributing educational material.
Recently, the national coin club has explored new ways
to promote the hobby by self-publishing educational
materials. The objective of such ventures is certainly
laudable; the hobby in general and the ANA in particular both
need a shot in the arm, and these might help provide it. But
self-publication would be a needless expense. A far better
approach would be for the ANA to license professional
publishers to distribute books, videos and other materials
drawn from the association's proprietary resources. My
contacts in the publishing field tell me there would be
considerable interest in such materials.
Instead of paying a printer or a CD-ROM company to self-
publish its work, the ANA could generate substantial new
income. And, just as important, its materials would receive
broad, powerful dissemination, which undoubtedly would
attract many new recruits to both the association and the
hobby.
Myth No. 8: Gold coins are always a better investment
than silver or nickel.
Many new collectors, as well as many investors entering
the coin market, are convinced that all that glitters is
indeed gold. They assume that being more valuable (at least
in terms of face and intrinsic value), gold coins are
inevitably more desirable as well.
In a way, this is understandable; gold has undeniable
glamour and allure. But gold coins can go down in value just
as surely as any other kind. Gold coins may outshine their
silver and nickel counterparts visually--but from an
investment standpoint, they're just as prone as their poorer
relations to turn in a lackluster performance.
Your best bet is to stick with the highest-quality coins
you can afford, regardless of their metallic composition or
intrinsic value. And you would almost certainly be much
better off with a stunning rare-date MS-66 nickel three-cent
piece--a coin that cost thousands of dollars in 1989 and is
just a small fraction of that today--than with a beat-up gold
coin whose nicks and scratches make it appear that Godzilla
used it as a teething ring.
Myth No. 9: Rare coins are traded on Wall Street.
Back in 1989 and 1990, Merrill Lynch and Kidder Peabody
did in fact establish limited partnerships in rare coins.
However, those partnerships have since been liquidated--
largely because their performance was disastrous.
Participants in the Merrill Lynch funds got all their money
back from Merrill Lynch, but others were not so fortunate.
Beware of hucksters touting rare coins as an investment
vehicle traded on Wall Street. It was true in 1990, but it's
false five years later.
Myth No. 10: Coins perform well only in inflationary
times.
Inflation does enhance interest and activity in rare
coins. We saw this in the late 1970s and early 1980s, when
inflationary fears--and actual double-digit inflation--
triggered a massive exodus from traditional investments into
tangible assets, including coins. But another major coin-
market boom, in the late 1980s, had little or nothing to do
with inflation.
That boom--likewise one of the biggest we've ever seen--
was touched off by Wall Street's entry into the coin
marketplace. It drew strength from the introduction of coins
to many prospective buyers as a new form of investment, and
from the ability of the coin industry to promote itself
successfully. This demonstrates conclusively that while
inflation is a big plus for the coin market, it isn't an
absolute prerequisite for a boom.
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Scott A. Travers ranks as one of the most influencial coin dealers in the world. His
name is familiar to readers everywhere as the author of six bestselling books on coins:
The Coin Collector's Survival Manual, The Insider's Guide to U.S. Coin Values
(annual price guide), One-Minute Coin Expert, Travers' Rare Coin Investment
Strategy, The Investor's Guide to Coin Trading and How to Make Money in
Coins Right Now. Mr. Travers appears frequently on television and radio and
has served as COINage magazine contributing editor since 1984. He invites
Coin Universe visitors to read free excerpts from some of his books.
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