How to Make a Million In Coins -- Part 2

Scott Travers - May 1, 1994
 
So you want to make a million!

Well, you've come to the right place.

In last month's issue of COINage, I set forth the elements that fortune-hunters would need in order to make a million dollars buying and selling rare coins.

I explained that the four key elements are time, money, expertise and economic justification. I also pointed out that traditional wisdom no longer applies when it comes to market cycles in this business: Instead of taking three years or less to run their course, as they did just a decade ago, booms and busts may last much longer now. And, for that reason, coins should now be viewed as a long-term investment.

More than anything else, EXPERTISE is the crucial element you will need to make that million. To maximize your chances of getting good value, and thus having coins with good investment potential, you have to know what you're doing at all times.

To some extent, of course, you can BUY expertise by acquiring the services of an independent coin dealer or broker. But no one has your interests at heart to nearly the same extent as you do yourself. The old, familiar saying is absolutely true: Knowledge is power. Even if you retain a numismatic professional to advise you, some self-education is essential.

Learning about coins isn't quite the same as going to school; there are seminars and symposiums at major coin shows, it's true--but, for the most part, you have to learn the basics on your own and then advance to ever-higher levels of "education" by absorbing the sometimes hard lessons of trial and error.

Fortunately, we do have access today to some marvelous educational tools: the many in-depth coin books written in recent years and the excellent periodicals that bring us up to date on current hobby happenings and longer-range market trends.

Certain general reference books are prerequisites for anyone even considering the purchase of rare coins. While I am admittedly prejudiced, I would include several of my own books in this category--especially my two Dell paperbacks, "One-Minute Coin Expert" and "The Insider's Guide to U.S. Coin Values."

"One-Minute Coin Expert" provides a wealth of useful information on how to identify scarce and valuable coins, including those available in pocket change and those that turn up in old accumulations. "The Insider's Guide" is an annual publication listing current values for all U.S. coins in a wide range of grade levels. Under a special promotion now taking place, certain dealers are giving away free copies of "One-Minute Coin Expert" to anyone who purchases a coin from them.

My very first book, "The Coin Collector's Survival Manual," first published in 1984, will be released early next year in a brand new 3rd edition--and it's still as instructive and relevant today as it was 10 years ago. As its name suggests, the "Survival Manual" gives coin buyers the informational tools they need to avoid the perils and pitfalls in the marketplace.

"Walter Breen's Complete Encyclopedia of U.S. and Colonial Coins" is just as comprehensive as its title indicates--and no one who aspires to make a million in coins can afford to be without it.

Similarly, no one should purchase U.S. commemorative coins without first reading the brand new Bible of this field, "Commemorative Coins of the United States Identification and Price Guide" by Mister Commem himself, Anthony Swiatek. And anyone considering U.S. pattern coins would be foolish to invest in them without first investing in a copy of THAT field's Bible, "United States Pattern, Experimental and Trial Pieces" by the late Dr. J. Hewitt Judd.

For up-to-date market data, The Coin Dealer Newsletter (or Greysheet) and The Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter (or Bluesheet) are indispensable. These weekly publications help guide the buying and selling decisions of dealers throughout the country, and any serious buyer or seller would be at a severe disadvantage without them. To obtain subscription information, write to these publications at P.O. Box 7939, Torrance, CA 90504.

Every bit of knowledge you gain about coins will be helpful--but what you learn about grading will be especially so.

There's a tendency today to minimize the need for self- education on grading because the major third-party certification services provide a security blanket. Their presence is indeed reassuring, but they shouldn't be treated as a crutch: The more you learn about how to grade coins yourself, the easier it will be for you to spot good buys when they present themselves.

Combine and expand your book knowledge with practical experience. Go to coin auctions and conventions and try to develop your own firsthand knowledge of how coins are graded, how they are traded and what their true value is.

After you've equipped yourself with all this working knowledge, you'll be ready to venture out into the no-longer- intimidating marketplace and start putting together that portfolio that will make you a million dollars.

As I stated last month, one of the keys to success in numismatic investing is to diversify. If you're spending a million dollars, you don't want to spend it all on one coin. Of course, if that one coin was a 1913 Liberty Head nickel, you might do very well--but you really do want to spread your risk.

At the outset, I'm going to make a recommendation some may find surprising: I think you should invest a portion of your money in circulated coins.

In 1984, when I wrote a similar article for COINage, I specifically advised readers to stay away from circulated coins. Well, times have changed: During the last five years, while mint-state type coins have been floundering, problem- free scarce-date coins in circulated grade levels--grades such as extremely fine and about uncirculated--have more than held their own, sometimes even going up in value.

Key coins from widely collected series--the 1909-S VDB Lincoln cent and the 1916-D Mercury dime, for example--are avidly sought even in grades as low as good, very good and fine. These are really staples of American numismatics, and I highly recommend acquiring them: Even in less-than-perfect condition, they're perfect for your portfolio.

On the other hand, while high-grade coins haven't had a great track record in recent years, they're downright irresistible at present market levels and certainly need to constitute a very major part of a million-dollar portfolio.

Before going on with my list of coins you should buy, I have some strong suggestions on coins you should AVOID:

  • Stay away from coins of marginal quality unless they are legitimately scarce or rare. Mint State-60 specimens of relatively common Morgan silver dollars, for example, benefit from neither collectors' desire for rarity nor investors' obsession with quality.

  • Stay away from so-called collector coins from small and/or unproven countries. The resale market for these is likely to be equally small and/or unproven.

  • Stay away from current or recent precious-metal coins that carry tremendous premiums over their bullion value. When all is said and done, the only thing truly "precious" about these coins is likely to be the metal--and THAT'S really all you should be paying for.

My advice is to focus on U.S. coins and steer clear of foreign and ancient coins unless you have special interest and expertise in those areas.

There are no magic formulas for striking it rich-- perhaps a million dollars' rich--in coins. You can, however, give yourself a better chance of success by establishing and following prudent guidelines.

For one thing, you should draw up--and adhere to--a blueprint on the kinds of coins you'll be buying.

I recommend apportioning your expenditures as follows:

  • 10 percent on high-quality copper coins.
  • 15 percent on high-quality nickel coins.
  • 30 percent on high-quality silver coins.
  • 20 percent on high-quality gold coins.
  • 10 percent on high-quality commemorative coins.
  • 10 percent on key-date coins--numismatic staples--in circulated grades.
  • 5 percent on high-quality pattern coins.
I've already addressed the issue of circulated coins. Let's consider each of these other groups, one by one.

Buying COPPER COINS requires special care, since copper --of all the widely used coinage metals--is the most susceptible to chemical and environmental damage. Black toning flecks are almost inevitable; copper coins without them are extremely rare. However, you should steer clear of coins where such spotting becomes unsightly.

In assembling a million-dollar portfolio, I would include copper coins from the 1790s right through the 1970s-- along with a few Colonial copper issues.

In the half cent series, I particularly like the 1831 restrike with small berries. This proof-only issue should run you about $12,000 in Proof-63. In large cents, I like the 1793 Liberty Cap type, at $23,000 in Extremely Fine-40, and the 1807-over-6 overdate with a small "7," at $24,000 in XF- 40.

Owning an 1856 Flying Eagle cent is the dream of every small-cent collector, and your million-dollar portfolio should make that dream come true--at $14,000 for a Proof-65 example. I also like the 1859 copper-nickel Indian cent at $4,000 in Proof-65.

As I indicated earlier, I very much like the 1909-S VDB Lincoln cent. In fact, I recommend it not only in circulated condition but also in Mint State-64 and Mint State-65. The 1972 doubled-die Lincoln cent is on my list of coins to buy, as well. In MS-65 Red, this should cost less than $200. It's a hot item, a very popular coin, and I recommend it.

Finally, no million-dollar portfolio would be complete without a Mint State-65 1864 small-motto two-cent piece. That should run about $2,600.

Copper coins, by the way, have held their own in the downbeat market of the last five years better than virtually any other group--undoubtedly because their primary appeal is to traditional collectors, not investors.

When it comes to NICKEL COINS, the ones I like the best are those which have come down in value the most--notably proof and mint-state nickel three-cent pieces, Shield nickels and Liberty Head nickels. And although I recommend diversification, this is one exception where it's OK to buy more than just one coin of a given type.

U.S. nickel coins actually are made from 75-percent copper and just 25-percent nickel, so they're subject to the same caveat I issued in connection with copper coins. You should examine nickel coins closely and make sure they have no spots on them whatsoever. Also, if a nickel coin has any toning areas, make sure that this toning doesn't penetrate the surface of the coin.

For your million-dollar collection, a full set of Buffalo nickels is a must. You can even buy them in Mint State-63. They're quite affordable now, and I think they have wonderful potential.

In addition to the mint-state set, I also recommend buying a 1913 Buffalo nickel in Proof-65 or better. Another coin that merits consideration is the 1916 nickel with a doubled obverse. This is a good value at $13,000 in MS-63.

It isn't any accident that high-quality SILVER COINS constitute the single biggest portion of the blueprint I've drawn up. The larger silver coins, in particular--coins such as Morgan dollars and Barber half dollars--have long held special appeal for investment-minded buyers because of their combination of age, precious metal and heft.

I would suggest an overall type set of silver coins--a set with one choice example of every major U.S. silver coin design. Try to put it together in the highest possible grade--MS-67 or even MS-68, if you can find and afford that kind of quality. "Supergrade" silver coins are great buys today; they've come down in value dramatically.

Standing Liberty quarters are particular bargains at this time. You can get some outstanding pieces in this perennially popular series in the $500 range--coins that would have cost thousands just a few years ago. One of my personal favorites is the 1918-over-17-S overdate quarter in Mint State-63. This, of course, isn't a $500 coin; it will set you back about $22,000. But it's well worth the price. I also like the 1927-S very much: In MS-65, it's an excellent value at 8 to 10 thousand dollars.

I'm extremely enthusiastic about Liberty Seated half dollars with arrows beside the date. These are great coins, and some of the New Orleans Mint issues represent especially good buys. You can pick up an 1854-O half dollar with arrows for $9,000 in MS-65, and I recommend that you do so.

While Morgan dollars get much more attention, I would focus on earlier dollar issues in putting together a million- dollar collection. I'm extremely bullish, for instance, on Draped Bust silver dollars with the heraldic eagle on the reverse. I also recommend Gobrecht dollars highly. For $10,000, more or less, you can buy an AU-55 piece that looks like a mint-state example.

Proof-67 Trade dollars are wonderful buys right now in the $14,000 range. Five years ago, these coins would have been priced at $80,000 or $90,000 wholesale.

In general, I like any pre-modern silver coin that grades above Mint State- or Proof-65. Exceptional buying opportunities exist today for coins grading 66 through 69. There aren't many 69 coins available, of course--but if you can find and afford them, snap them up! In time, I predict that you'll be able to sell them for 10 times more than you paid.

In GOLD COINS, as in silver, you should strive to assemble a type set. The Classic Head quarter eagles and half eagles ($2.50 and $5 gold pieces) of the 1830s top my list right now: These coins are absolutely magnificent, and they're marvelous buys. Proof gold coins also are spectacularly beautiful and they've come down in value dramatically--so those, too, belong in your portfolio.

High-quality COMMEMORATIVE COINS are a must. Try to get a complete set of silver and gold commemoratives from the series' traditional period--1892 through 1954. Many of these coins are selling today for just a small fraction of what they were bringing five years ago.

Last but not least, you'll need and want some high- quality PATTERN COINS. Many of these are extremely rare, yet they're virtually going begging in today's depressed marketplace. Be careful, though: This can be a gray area, and expertise is more important here than almost anywhere else.

Well, there's your blueprint. Now, all you have to do is follow it.

You may not make a million if you do, but I'll guarantee you this: No one will ever be able to say that you don't have a dime to your name!



Scott A. Travers ranks as one of the most influencial coin dealers in the world. His name is familiar to readers everywhere as the author of six bestselling books on coins: The Coin Collector's Survival Manual, The Insider's Guide to U.S. Coin Values (annual price guide), One-Minute Coin Expert, Travers' Rare Coin Investment Strategy, The Investor's Guide to Coin Trading and How to Make Money in Coins Right Now. Mr. Travers appears frequently on television and radio and has served as COINage magazine contributing editor since 1984. He invites Coin Universe visitors to read free excerpts from some of his books.




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