Gold Question: What Would Happen to Rare Coins if Gold Shot Up $100?

Scott Travers - May 1, 1995
 

First published: May 1995, COINage magazine
©1995 BY SCOTT A. TRAVERS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Certain things in life seem to go together perfectly. Love and marriage ... salt and pepper ... ham and eggs--you get the idea.

Gold bullion and rare coins fall into this category, too. They complement each other nicely, and people with an interest in one of them tend to find the other appealing, as well.

Lately, there has been all too little interest in EITHER gold bullion and rare coins. Both have experienced limited market activity throughout the 1990s, and both are well below the price levels they scaled in the boom years of the 1980s.

Much like devoted spouses, though, these closely related objects of desire are joined both for better and for worse-- and just as they've shared BAD times for the last half-decade or so, they also share the wealth when times are good.

Good times follow bad, as sure as day follows night. And it's a lead-pipe cinch that when the rare-coin market does turn around, gold will be glittering much more brightly, too.

Actually, it's altogether possible ... even LIKELY ... that gold will lead the way in the next bull market, serving as a catalyst for rare coins to rise in value, rather than the other way around. Given the fear of inflation that lurks today in the minds of many Americans--government officials, economists and ordinary men and women in the street--a gold- buying spree might very well occur if a confidence-shaking event stampedes the jittery public into seeking a safer haven for its money.

As this is written, gold is trading for about $385 an ounce, and its value has been stagnant for many months. Many experts agree, though, that with the right combination of economic developments, possibly including sharp declines on Wall Street, the yellow metal's price could easily reach the $500 range within a short period of time. In other words, it could go up in value $100 or more very quickly.

Obviously, this is a strong argument for purchasing gold bullion while it's still available for $400 or less. It also has major implications for the rare-coin market, however. Indeed, I am convinced that if gold does go up $100 an ounce, many rare coins--and even some not-so-rare coins--will surge in value even more, at least in the short term. And that could create tremendous opportunities for those who take advantage of the marketplace.

It's not without precedent for gold to go up dramatically within a short period. Consider what happened in 1979 and 1980, when it soared within a year from $236 an ounce to $850. Even during the doldrums of the last few years, there have been periods when the price of gold rose significantly for relatively brief stretches before settling back into stagnation.

During such periods of heightened activity, we typically see an almost immediate impact on coins which are bullion- sensitive--coins whose value is tied directly to the value of their precious-metal content. These include such "bullion- type" coins as the gold American Eagle, Canada's Maple Leaf and South Africa's Krugerrand.

If the increase in gold bullion is sustained, we then begin to see a spillover effect on other areas of the coin market, starting with coins which--while numismatic--also have substantial metal value. Soon, the impact reaches coins with only incidental bullion value. And finally, it is felt by the marketplace as a whole, including coins with no precious metal at all.

What makes these increases especially exciting is the fact that many times, they exceed the degree of the price rise in gold itself--sometimes quite substantially. Like ripples from a stone cast into a pond, they grow ever larger as they spread.

What WOULD happen if gold were to rise in value $100 an ounce in the coming weeks and months? Let's consider some specific cases in point.

So-called "generic" double eagles (or $20 gold pieces) would be among the first to feel the effect. Common-date Saint-Gaudens double eagles and Type 3 Liberty double eagles (those produced from 1877 to 1907) would rise in value almost at once by at least the same percentage as gold bullion. Each of them, after all, contains very nearly a full ounce of gold.

Common-date "Saints" certified as Mint State-63 by one of the leading coin-grading services are trading, as of this writing, for about $500. These would move above $600 if gold bullion rose $100. Type 3 Liberty double eagles, now trading for somewhat less than $600 when certified as MS-63, would enjoy an immediate gain of perhaps $125 to $150.

Common-date Indian Head eagles ($10 gold pieces), which contain slightly less than half an ounce of gold, also would be impacted directly. At present, a premium-quality $10 Indian certified as MS-62 is priced at less than $500. If gold were to go up $100 an ounce, this coin would gain at least $100 overnight.

It's easy enough to understand why these kinds of coins would keep pace with gold if prices went up. Even though they're viewed as collector's items, rather than purely bullion-related pieces, their value also has an important bullion component. Less obvious, however, is why there should be similar price increases--or even more dramatic ones--in rarer-date gold coins already selling for multiples of their precious-metal worth.

Consider, for example, the Liberty half eagle ($5 gold piece) without the motto IN GOD WE TRUST. In MS-63, this coin type currently is valued at approximately $4,600, or more than 40 times the quarter-ounce of gold, more or less, that it contains. If gold were to go up $100 an ounce, we might very well see this kind of coin rise in value by $1,500. That's a 30-percent increase. An MS-64 example, now $9,000, could shoot up to $12,000.

Consider, too, the Liberty quarter eagle ($2.50 gold piece), which now carries a price tag of $700 in MS-63. There isn't much gold in this coin--less than an eighth of an ounce. Yet, if gold went up $100 an ounce, we could easily see this coin at $1,000 or $1,100. And its counterpart in MS- 64, now priced at $900, could easily increase to $1,400 or $1,500.

Higher-grade specimens could enjoy even bigger gains percentagewise. The Liberty half eagle WITH motto is valued at $3,000 today in MS-65; if gold were to go up $100 an ounce, this coin could well be worth $5,000, or two-thirds more than before.

And higher-priced coins would enjoy the boom's benefits every bit as much as--and maybe even more than--their lower- valued cousins. Consider, for example, the Saint-Gaudens high-relief 1907 double eagle with Roman numerals. In MS-64, this rare piece is now worth $11,200. But if gold were to go up $100 an ounce, we might well be looking at a $14,000 coin.

To a great extent, the price increases in purely (or almost purely) numismatic items would result from the creation of a favorable climate in the marketplace. In other words, they would be largely psychological in origin.

Much of this activity would feed upon itself; in a sense, it would become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Coin dealers would burn up their telephone lines telling potential clients, as well as existing customers, that the rare-coin market was taking off.

The market performance of bullion would reassure these buyers and make them more receptive to investing in coins, as well. And as the sharp new demand acted upon the often very limited supply (not recognized earlier because of the lack of activity), prices would rise quickly and sharply--drawing even more attention and even more new buyers.

This market surge would catch the attention of the media, and before long we'd see Business Week, Time, Newsweek and other mass-market periodicals focusing again on rare coins.

If the $100 rise in the value of gold were sustained, we would soon see a spillover into mint-state type coins, proof type coins and other rare coins not even made of gold--and, in many instances, not even made of precious metal.

Proof-65 Barber quarters, currently worth about $1,400, could very well jump 50 percent--to the $2,000 to $2,200 range--under such a scenario. After all, they were worth many thousands in the late 1980s.

We could see Proof-65 Liberty Seated quarters without motto (1838 to 1865) increasing in value from their present level of $2,900 all the way to the $4,300 range--also on the order of 50 percent.

And we could see Proof-65 Morgan dollars, now selling for $3,100, move up smartly, and easily, to $4,500.

Coins which are highly sensitive to changes in the population and census reports issued by the grading services --coins in MS-67 and 68 and Proof-67 and 68, for example-- would also be very sensitive to meaningful increases in bullion prices, and would rise in value significantly in response. If the $100 rise in gold bullion were sustained, this would be the most profitable area of the marketplace: Percentagewise, the gains would clearly be the most dramatic.

Pre-1982 commemorative coins would feel the impact, too. Beautiful white MS-65 examples of many of these coins are priced at $500 or less today. Some of these coins cost $2,500, $3,000 or even $4,000 back in 1989, and a $100 rise in the price of gold could propel them to several times their current value within a very short time. They could easily become $1,500 coins within a matter of weeks.

This whole phenomenon--this whole interrelationship of gold bullion and rare coins--has a great deal to do with coin dealers themselves being the ultimate consumers, the ultimate "collectors," of many coins.

We saw this during the coin boom of 1980, when the Hunt brothers cornered the silver market and we saw gold zoom above $800 an ounce. Coin dealers made tremendous profits trading in bullion--and they plowed a lot of that money right back into the U.S. coin market, driving up rare-coin values across the board.

There's no doubt in my mind that we'll see a buying frenzy in the coin marketplace in the not-too-distant future. We're long overdue for it. And if you look at analyses of other markets, such as the stock market, the historical record shows that the longer you wait for a full market cycle ... the more time elapses without dramatic increases ... the greater the boom becomes when it actually occurs.

We've gone through a bear market of five years' duration--and given the experience of other markets, this could be the precursor to a truly phenomenal bull-market period.

Even without a boost from gold bullion, the coin market could get a major shot in the arm if Congress passes legislation authorizing the inclusion of rare coins in self- directed retirement plans--a status they enjoyed before it was rescinded in 1981.

But a boost from gold bullion could very well prove to be the biggest and most far-reaching of all.

We saw this in abbreviated form in 1992 and again in 1993, when gold rose significantly for short periods and rare coins went along for the ride. In both those instances, shrewd buyers purchased coins for quick short-term action and then were able to go to the cash window and celebrate.

During those periods, U.S. gold type coins rose in value sharply--some of them in increments of $500 and $1,000 per coin. The problem was, the gains in gold bullion turned out to be short-lived, and as soon as people saw slight slippage in gold bullion ... losses of as little as 10, 15, or 20 dollars an ounce ... they quickly withdrew from the coin market, causing the price balloons to deflate.

Being in the coin market at that time was the equivalent of trying to catch a falling knife. And a lot of people who tried to catch the falling knife got bloodied. People viewed it as a good time to buy, and some of them did buy--but when the market started to go down, it fell a lot more quickly than they expected.

Buying rare coins at present market levels could prove to be a marvelous investment if gold does indeed go up in value--and especially if it rises $100 an ounce (or even more). Those purchases could enjoy tremendous appreciation within a very short period.

However, I must add a word of caution: Although it is entirely realistic to anticipate that gold may go up $100 an ounce, and this scenario is not at all improbable, it's also realistic to believe that the gain will not be sustained.

My recommendation is, if we do see this type of increase, you should view it not as the time to buy more coins, but rather as the time to cash out some of the ones you already have, take some profits and sit on the sidelines for a while--waiting for gold to come DOWN $100 before you start buying again.

Will there really be a $100 rise in the price of gold? No one can say for sure, of course, but it's reasonable to believe that it may, in fact, happen within the next couple of years-possibly even within the next several months. So now is the time to prepare for it.

Gold is the ultimate external economic variable guiding and pushing the rare coin marketplace. It may not be glittering now, but sooner or later it will be--and once its bandwagon starts to roll again, the rare-coin market will be in for a wonderful ride.

Right now there are plenty of seats--so climb aboard!



Scott A. Travers ranks as one of the most influencial coin dealers in the world. His name is familiar to readers everywhere as the author of six bestselling books on coins: The Coin Collector's Survival Manual, The Insider's Guide to U.S. Coin Values (annual price guide), One-Minute Coin Expert, Travers' Rare Coin Investment Strategy, The Investor's Guide to Coin Trading and How to Make Money in Coins Right Now. Mr. Travers appears frequently on television and radio and has served as COINage magazine contributing editor since 1984. He invites Coin Universe visitors to read free excerpts from some of his books.




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