The more things change, the more they stay the same.
That sums up the rare coin market's performance during
1995. It was very much like the previous year and the year
before that.
In short, it was a year of largely unfulfilled
expectations.
There WERE some exciting events--notably the discovery
of the 1995 doubled-die Lincoln cent, which touched off a
nationwide scavenger hunt for bright new "pennies" with
doubling on the obverse.
Dealers, collectors and hobby organizations also joined
the rush to stake out a position on the information
superhighway. Computers will play a significant role in the
future of numismatics, and more and more participants in the
marketplace are joining on-line services and establishing
home pages on the World Wide Web of the Internet.
For the most part, however, the coin market really
didn't need a superhighway during 1995, for traffic in the
marketplace was generally light.
As usual, the year's first big event was the annual
convention of the Florida United Numismatists--the FUN show.
Thousands of hobbyists gathered in Orlando in early January
for the 40th annual edition of the show, and while the market
wasn't red-hot, the weather was pleasantly warm.
Among the highlights of the 1995 FUN show was an auction
conducted by Bowers and Merena of Wolfeboro, New Hampshire.
Its centerpiece was a collection of coins said to have
belonged to Commodore Matthew C. Perry, the 19th-century U.S.
naval officer who established trade relations between this
country and Japan.
At the end of January, the scene shifted to the West
Coast, where a flurry of activity heralded the approach of
the midwinter Long Beach (California) Coin & Collectible
Expo, a bellwether show that is viewed as a barometer of how
the market's doing and how it's likely to do in the year
ahead.
The show itself didn't start until Feb. 2, but it was
preceded by several important Southern California auctions.
Superior Stamp & Coin, now an A-Mark company, held a
two-day sale that produced some noteworthy prices Jan. 30-31
in Beverly Hills, California. Most notably, an 1856-O double
eagle ($20 gold piece) graded Mint State-63 by the
Professional Coin Grading Service brought $203,500.
Butterfield-Johnson-Gillio conducted its first auction
Jan. 31 in Los Angeles, offering nearly 1,000 lots of U.S.
and world coins, medals and bank notes. Ponterio & Associates
also staged a Long Beach-related auction. And at the show
itself, a major auction was held by Heritage Rare Coins of
Dallas.
Co-stars of the Heritage sale were a 1795 Bust half
dollar graded MS-65 by the Numismatic Guaranty Corporation of
America, which realized an impressive $92,400, and an 1880
coiled-hair stella ($4 gold piece) graded Proof-65 by NGC,
which changed hands for $77,000.
Heritage also held a "bullet" sale in Long Beach, and
the highlight there was an 1893-O Morgan dollar graded MS-64
by NGC, which realized $14,575.
The marketplace as a whole was quiet in the days leading
up to Long Beach. A headline in the Jan. 27 issue of the
Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter (or Bluesheet) proclaimed:
"Buying Opportunities at Long Beach; Cash Customer Still
King." This was a euphemistic way of saying that nothing was
really happening in the marketplace, and anyone with money
could buy almost anything he or she wanted at a reasonable
level.
Many showgoers arrived in Long Beach early, hoping to
find good buying opportunities. But a flurry in the gold
market right around that time sputtered out, and the coin
market seemed to follow that lead. It was generally agreed
that the Long Beach show was quietly successful, considering
the state of the marketplace, but not the kind of mega-hit
that optimists had hoped it might be.
Buffalo nickels provided a bright spot in the generally
spotty picture. The Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter pointed
out in February that as of that point, Buffalos had chalked
up 194 advances and just 80 declines in its price listings in
the early going of 1995.
Selective advances in February--including those in
Buffalos--stirred mild optimism, and many observers looked to
the Early Spring Convention of the American Numismatic
Association, March 2-4 in Atlanta, as the springboard for
bigger and better things. The show was very well organized,
reflecting tremendous effort by the ANA and its dedicated
staff members and volunteers. Unfortunately, however, market
conditions kept it from being the complete success that many
hard-working people would have liked.
A Heritage auction at the Early Spring Convention
realized more than $3.5 million. The highlight was an 1893-S
Morgan dollar cataloged as MS-65, which realized $154,000. A
second 1893-S dollar, listed as MS-64, brought $74,250.
Heritage also held a signature sale; the highlight there was
an 1871-CC eagle ($10 gold piece) graded MS-62 by NGC, which
changed hands for $44,000.
The market strengthened a bit during March, but there
were really few changes in pricing. It was during March,
however, that the hobby was electrified by news of the 1995
doubled-die Lincoln cent. Throughout the nation--at local and
regional coin shows and everywhere else collectors and
dealers gathered--there was talk that the magic was back.
Initially, choice BU examples of the coin traded for
between $125 and $200, with circulated specimens selling in
the $50 range. Interest was heightened by widespread coverage
of the find in the general media, including a front-page
story in USA Today. Later, as many more pieces turned up, the
prices fell back--but the interest and excitement persisted
throughout the year.
At the end of March, Stack's conducted a major auction
featuring coins from the collection of James A. Stack Sr. (no
relation to the principals of the firm). It confirmed once
again that great numismatic rarities will bring exceptional
prices in any market environment.
The centerpiece of the sale was a prooflike uncirculated
1870-S Liberty Seated silver dollar, considered to be the
finest known example of this great rarity. As a standing-
room-only gallery looked on, the coin was hammered down for
$420,000, bringing its total price (with the 10-percent
buyer's premium) to $462,000.
In other significant transactions, buyers at the James
Stack sale paid $137,500 for a choice brilliant uncirculated
1871-CC silver dollar, $99,000 for a choice BU 1877-CC
twenty-cent piece and $82,500 for a gem BU 1875-S double
eagle. Overall, the sale realized nearly $5 million.
In early April, Bowers and Merena conducted two auctions
in conjunction with the Suburban Washington-Baltimore
Convention, held in Baltimore, and both were successful. One
featured coins and currency from the Herman Halpern
collection and realized close to $1.5 million. The other was
the second of four auctions featuring material from the
Armand Champa numismatic library, and it realized more than
$300,000.
As April rolled around, Buffalo nickels continued to be
strong, and Walking Liberty half dollars also made a move.
For a short time, mint-state gold coins enjoyed a spurt in
value, even though gold bullion wasn't doing likewise; dealer
promotions seemed to be responsible for this. And two other
previously dormant areas--Mercury dimes and silver U.S.
commemoratives--had brief moments of heightened activity.
The Central States Numismatic Society held an active
show April 28-30 in Milwaukee, and that gave the boomlet
added impetus. Among other things, the show confirmed that
quality gold coins were in short supply.
The market continued to gather modest momentum as April
gave way to May. It got a boost from yet another excellent
Stack's auction, May 2-3, which included some truly
remarkable coins from Ed Milas' collection of no-motto
Coronet half eagles.
Though some sectors of the marketplace were doing
better, prices were going down or remaining stagnant in other
areas. There was SOME demand, but supply outstripped demand
for many coins, and that put a brake on any broad-based
resurgence.
Toward the end of May, the spring East Coast Expo gave
the market a shot in the arm. In conjunction with the show,
Bowers and Merena held an auction May 26-27 featuring the
Kenneth C. Long Collection, and it realized more than $2.5
million. An 1852 Liberty Seated silver dollar graded Proof-65
by PCGS brought $39,600, and a 1909-S VDB Lincoln cent graded
MS-65 by PCGS went for an eye-popping $2,530.
The year's second Long Beach Expo was solid, and a
Heritage auction held at the show totaled an impressive $4
million. The sale featured coins consigned by the Museum of
Connecticut History. Among the highlight prices: $390,500 for
a 1927-D Saint-Gaudens double eagle graded MS-66 by NGC,
$181,500 for a 1927-S double eagle graded MS-67 by NGC and
$90,200 for a 1930-S double eagle graded MS-65 by NGC.
A Butterfield-Johnson-Gillio auction held that same week
revealed surprising interest in rolls of mint-state coins.
Bidders paid $2,750 for a roll of 1922-S Peace dollars and
$4,125 for a roll of 1944-S Walking Liberty half dollars.
In June, spot gold prices declined, and that helped
bring the coin-market boomlet to a screeching halt. On June
16, the ever-euphemistic Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter
carried this headline: "Buying Pressure Takes a Breather;
Market Supply Adequate to Current Demand." Translation: The
rally was over. Buffalo nickels continued to stir some
excitement, but generally activity was slow.
In July, the ANA announced the results of its biennial
election, which led to the seating of six new members on the
organization's nine-member Board of Governors. The only three
holdovers are the new president and vice president--Kenneth
E. Bressett and Anthony Swiatek, respectively--and Governor
Helen Carmody. The new board members are Kay Edgerton Lenker,
J.T. Stanton, John Wilson, Gary Lewis, Will Rossman and
myself.
By the beginning of August, all eyes were on Anaheim,
California, the home of Disneyland and--in 1995--the site of
the ANA's 105th Anniversary Convention. The ANA convention,
held Aug. 16-20 at the Anaheim Convention Center, proved
successful despite problems posed by the California sales tax
authorities. ANA staffers and volunteers worked hard to
protect the interests of dealers, collectors and members of
the public attending the show.
A Superior Galleries auction held on the eve of the
convention realized a total of $1.5 million. In two key
transactions, buyers paid $115,500 for an 1803 silver dollar,
Bolender 7, graded Proof-65 by NGC and $66,000 for a 1796
quarter graded MS-65 by NGC.
A 500-lot Bowers and Merena auction during convention
week realized $3 million. Buyers paid $52,800 for an 1839
Gobrecht dollar graded Proof-65 by PCGS and $23,100 for a
1794 dollar graded Very Fine-20 by NGC.
The official convention auction was staged by Heritage,
and its total realization came to a remarkable $7.4 million,
stamping it as clearly the main event. In some of the biggest
transactions, buyers paid $96,800 for an 1861 double eagle
graded Proof-67 by PCGS, $61,050 for an 1869 eagle graded
Proof-66 by PCGS and $58,300 for an 1879 flowing-hair stella
graded Proof-65 by PCGS.
Throughout the summer, late-date U.S. silver proof sets
went up in value. Apparently, promoters were cracking silver
proof coins out of their holders, submitting the individual
coins to NGC or PCGS, then selling the coins to the non-
collecting public at greatly inflated prices after they had
been certified. This activity drove up the prices of the
sets. The 1992-S set, for example, had been trading for only
$15.25 at the start of 1995, but hit the $20 mark in July--an
increase of nearly one-third.
By September, gold was moving up and mint-state and
proof coins were posting gains--gains that were really quite
impressive, considering the lackluster state of the
marketplace. Rolls of modern coins also were doing
surprisingly well.
Gold glittered brightly at a Bowers and Merena auction
that month featuring the Greenwald and Jackson collections.
The sale achieved prices totaling $3.3 million. In two of the
highlight transactions, buyers paid $58,300 for an 1834 half
eagle graded MS-63 by PCGS and $42,900 for an 1870 half eagle
graded Proof-65 by PCGS.
The year's third and final Long Beach Expo took place
Oct. 4-8 and the California tax man showed up again,
dampening enthusiasm at a show that otherwise might have been
a smash hit.
Stack's helped restore electricity--and magic--to the
marketplace Oct. 10-12, when it held its 60th Anniversary
Sale, an auction extravaganza featuring the collection of
Seymour Finkelstein. The prices realized were nothing short
of phenomenal. A coiled-hair 1879 stella, cataloged as
brilliant proof, brought $220,000--an awe-inspiring price by
any measure. A choice brilliant proof 1846 eagle went for
$55,000. And a choice BU 1848 "CAL." quarter eagle ($2.50
gold piece) realized $49,500.
I've had the good fortune of knowing Sy Finkelstein, the
consignor of the collection, and I'm sure he is appreciative
of the very strong prices realized by his coins at a time
when market conditions were less than favorable. The results
are a great tribute to the skill and professionalism of
Stack's.
Late in the year, Stack's joined Rarcoa and David Akers
in a joint sale called Numisma '95, which included some very
important material. At press time, the results were not
available.
One of the year's more interesting developments was the
establishment of the First Token Grading Service in
Amityville, New York, a company that grades and encapsulates
U.S. tokens. The company's founder, Kevin Donahue, is a coin-
market veteran who hopes to attract submissions from solid
collectors. I'm told that items certified by the service will
soon be included on the Teletype trading network. The firm's
address is P.O. Box 515, Amityville, NY 11701.
As 1996 begins, the outlook for the coin market is
uncertain. It's clear to me, however, that the future of our
marketplace will be intertwined inextricably with
developments in the Computer Revolution.
The United States Mint, the ANA and progressive coin
companies such as Heritage have already staked out positions
on the information superhighway, and more and more coin-
market players are sure to follow suit as the Internet and
on-line services assume ever-bigger roles in both the
transmission of numismatic information and the transaction of
coin-related business.
My own firm, Scott Travers Rare Coin Galleries, also has
a home page on the World Wide Web, and I invite you to visit
me there. My Internet home-page address is
http://www.inch.com/~travers/travers3.htm (my E-mail address
is travers@inch.com).
Come on in--the surfing's fine!
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Scott A. Travers ranks as one of the most influencial coin dealers in the world. His
name is familiar to readers everywhere as the author of six bestselling books on coins:
The Coin Collector's Survival Manual, The Insider's Guide to U.S. Coin Values
(annual price guide), One-Minute Coin Expert, Travers' Rare Coin Investment
Strategy, The Investor's Guide to Coin Trading and How to Make Money in
Coins Right Now. Mr. Travers appears frequently on television and radio and
has served as COINage magazine contributing editor since 1984. He invites
Coin Universe visitors to read free excerpts from some of his books.
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