The Coin Market - Getting Ready for the Computer Marketplace

Scott Travers - January 1, 1996
 
The more things change, the more they stay the same.

That sums up the rare coin market's performance during 1995. It was very much like the previous year and the year before that.

In short, it was a year of largely unfulfilled expectations.

There WERE some exciting events--notably the discovery of the 1995 doubled-die Lincoln cent, which touched off a nationwide scavenger hunt for bright new "pennies" with doubling on the obverse.

Dealers, collectors and hobby organizations also joined the rush to stake out a position on the information superhighway. Computers will play a significant role in the future of numismatics, and more and more participants in the marketplace are joining on-line services and establishing home pages on the World Wide Web of the Internet.

For the most part, however, the coin market really didn't need a superhighway during 1995, for traffic in the marketplace was generally light.

As usual, the year's first big event was the annual convention of the Florida United Numismatists--the FUN show. Thousands of hobbyists gathered in Orlando in early January for the 40th annual edition of the show, and while the market wasn't red-hot, the weather was pleasantly warm.

Among the highlights of the 1995 FUN show was an auction conducted by Bowers and Merena of Wolfeboro, New Hampshire. Its centerpiece was a collection of coins said to have belonged to Commodore Matthew C. Perry, the 19th-century U.S. naval officer who established trade relations between this country and Japan.

At the end of January, the scene shifted to the West Coast, where a flurry of activity heralded the approach of the midwinter Long Beach (California) Coin & Collectible Expo, a bellwether show that is viewed as a barometer of how the market's doing and how it's likely to do in the year ahead.

The show itself didn't start until Feb. 2, but it was preceded by several important Southern California auctions.

Superior Stamp & Coin, now an A-Mark company, held a two-day sale that produced some noteworthy prices Jan. 30-31 in Beverly Hills, California. Most notably, an 1856-O double eagle ($20 gold piece) graded Mint State-63 by the Professional Coin Grading Service brought $203,500.

Butterfield-Johnson-Gillio conducted its first auction Jan. 31 in Los Angeles, offering nearly 1,000 lots of U.S. and world coins, medals and bank notes. Ponterio & Associates also staged a Long Beach-related auction. And at the show itself, a major auction was held by Heritage Rare Coins of Dallas.

Co-stars of the Heritage sale were a 1795 Bust half dollar graded MS-65 by the Numismatic Guaranty Corporation of America, which realized an impressive $92,400, and an 1880 coiled-hair stella ($4 gold piece) graded Proof-65 by NGC, which changed hands for $77,000.

Heritage also held a "bullet" sale in Long Beach, and the highlight there was an 1893-O Morgan dollar graded MS-64 by NGC, which realized $14,575.

The marketplace as a whole was quiet in the days leading up to Long Beach. A headline in the Jan. 27 issue of the Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter (or Bluesheet) proclaimed: "Buying Opportunities at Long Beach; Cash Customer Still King." This was a euphemistic way of saying that nothing was really happening in the marketplace, and anyone with money could buy almost anything he or she wanted at a reasonable level.

Many showgoers arrived in Long Beach early, hoping to find good buying opportunities. But a flurry in the gold market right around that time sputtered out, and the coin market seemed to follow that lead. It was generally agreed that the Long Beach show was quietly successful, considering the state of the marketplace, but not the kind of mega-hit that optimists had hoped it might be.

Buffalo nickels provided a bright spot in the generally spotty picture. The Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter pointed out in February that as of that point, Buffalos had chalked up 194 advances and just 80 declines in its price listings in the early going of 1995.

Selective advances in February--including those in Buffalos--stirred mild optimism, and many observers looked to the Early Spring Convention of the American Numismatic Association, March 2-4 in Atlanta, as the springboard for bigger and better things. The show was very well organized, reflecting tremendous effort by the ANA and its dedicated staff members and volunteers. Unfortunately, however, market conditions kept it from being the complete success that many hard-working people would have liked.

A Heritage auction at the Early Spring Convention realized more than $3.5 million. The highlight was an 1893-S Morgan dollar cataloged as MS-65, which realized $154,000. A second 1893-S dollar, listed as MS-64, brought $74,250. Heritage also held a signature sale; the highlight there was an 1871-CC eagle ($10 gold piece) graded MS-62 by NGC, which changed hands for $44,000.

The market strengthened a bit during March, but there were really few changes in pricing. It was during March, however, that the hobby was electrified by news of the 1995 doubled-die Lincoln cent. Throughout the nation--at local and regional coin shows and everywhere else collectors and dealers gathered--there was talk that the magic was back.

Initially, choice BU examples of the coin traded for between $125 and $200, with circulated specimens selling in the $50 range. Interest was heightened by widespread coverage of the find in the general media, including a front-page story in USA Today. Later, as many more pieces turned up, the prices fell back--but the interest and excitement persisted throughout the year.

At the end of March, Stack's conducted a major auction featuring coins from the collection of James A. Stack Sr. (no relation to the principals of the firm). It confirmed once again that great numismatic rarities will bring exceptional prices in any market environment.

The centerpiece of the sale was a prooflike uncirculated 1870-S Liberty Seated silver dollar, considered to be the finest known example of this great rarity. As a standing- room-only gallery looked on, the coin was hammered down for $420,000, bringing its total price (with the 10-percent buyer's premium) to $462,000.

In other significant transactions, buyers at the James Stack sale paid $137,500 for a choice brilliant uncirculated 1871-CC silver dollar, $99,000 for a choice BU 1877-CC twenty-cent piece and $82,500 for a gem BU 1875-S double eagle. Overall, the sale realized nearly $5 million.

In early April, Bowers and Merena conducted two auctions in conjunction with the Suburban Washington-Baltimore Convention, held in Baltimore, and both were successful. One featured coins and currency from the Herman Halpern collection and realized close to $1.5 million. The other was the second of four auctions featuring material from the Armand Champa numismatic library, and it realized more than $300,000.

As April rolled around, Buffalo nickels continued to be strong, and Walking Liberty half dollars also made a move. For a short time, mint-state gold coins enjoyed a spurt in value, even though gold bullion wasn't doing likewise; dealer promotions seemed to be responsible for this. And two other previously dormant areas--Mercury dimes and silver U.S. commemoratives--had brief moments of heightened activity.

The Central States Numismatic Society held an active show April 28-30 in Milwaukee, and that gave the boomlet added impetus. Among other things, the show confirmed that quality gold coins were in short supply.

The market continued to gather modest momentum as April gave way to May. It got a boost from yet another excellent Stack's auction, May 2-3, which included some truly remarkable coins from Ed Milas' collection of no-motto Coronet half eagles.

Though some sectors of the marketplace were doing better, prices were going down or remaining stagnant in other areas. There was SOME demand, but supply outstripped demand for many coins, and that put a brake on any broad-based resurgence.

Toward the end of May, the spring East Coast Expo gave the market a shot in the arm. In conjunction with the show, Bowers and Merena held an auction May 26-27 featuring the Kenneth C. Long Collection, and it realized more than $2.5 million. An 1852 Liberty Seated silver dollar graded Proof-65 by PCGS brought $39,600, and a 1909-S VDB Lincoln cent graded MS-65 by PCGS went for an eye-popping $2,530.

The year's second Long Beach Expo was solid, and a Heritage auction held at the show totaled an impressive $4 million. The sale featured coins consigned by the Museum of Connecticut History. Among the highlight prices: $390,500 for a 1927-D Saint-Gaudens double eagle graded MS-66 by NGC, $181,500 for a 1927-S double eagle graded MS-67 by NGC and $90,200 for a 1930-S double eagle graded MS-65 by NGC.

A Butterfield-Johnson-Gillio auction held that same week revealed surprising interest in rolls of mint-state coins. Bidders paid $2,750 for a roll of 1922-S Peace dollars and $4,125 for a roll of 1944-S Walking Liberty half dollars.

In June, spot gold prices declined, and that helped bring the coin-market boomlet to a screeching halt. On June 16, the ever-euphemistic Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter carried this headline: "Buying Pressure Takes a Breather; Market Supply Adequate to Current Demand." Translation: The rally was over. Buffalo nickels continued to stir some excitement, but generally activity was slow.

In July, the ANA announced the results of its biennial election, which led to the seating of six new members on the organization's nine-member Board of Governors. The only three holdovers are the new president and vice president--Kenneth E. Bressett and Anthony Swiatek, respectively--and Governor Helen Carmody. The new board members are Kay Edgerton Lenker, J.T. Stanton, John Wilson, Gary Lewis, Will Rossman and myself.

By the beginning of August, all eyes were on Anaheim, California, the home of Disneyland and--in 1995--the site of the ANA's 105th Anniversary Convention. The ANA convention, held Aug. 16-20 at the Anaheim Convention Center, proved successful despite problems posed by the California sales tax authorities. ANA staffers and volunteers worked hard to protect the interests of dealers, collectors and members of the public attending the show.

A Superior Galleries auction held on the eve of the convention realized a total of $1.5 million. In two key transactions, buyers paid $115,500 for an 1803 silver dollar, Bolender 7, graded Proof-65 by NGC and $66,000 for a 1796 quarter graded MS-65 by NGC.

A 500-lot Bowers and Merena auction during convention week realized $3 million. Buyers paid $52,800 for an 1839 Gobrecht dollar graded Proof-65 by PCGS and $23,100 for a 1794 dollar graded Very Fine-20 by NGC.

The official convention auction was staged by Heritage, and its total realization came to a remarkable $7.4 million, stamping it as clearly the main event. In some of the biggest transactions, buyers paid $96,800 for an 1861 double eagle graded Proof-67 by PCGS, $61,050 for an 1869 eagle graded Proof-66 by PCGS and $58,300 for an 1879 flowing-hair stella graded Proof-65 by PCGS.

Throughout the summer, late-date U.S. silver proof sets went up in value. Apparently, promoters were cracking silver proof coins out of their holders, submitting the individual coins to NGC or PCGS, then selling the coins to the non- collecting public at greatly inflated prices after they had been certified. This activity drove up the prices of the sets. The 1992-S set, for example, had been trading for only $15.25 at the start of 1995, but hit the $20 mark in July--an increase of nearly one-third.

By September, gold was moving up and mint-state and proof coins were posting gains--gains that were really quite impressive, considering the lackluster state of the marketplace. Rolls of modern coins also were doing surprisingly well.

Gold glittered brightly at a Bowers and Merena auction that month featuring the Greenwald and Jackson collections. The sale achieved prices totaling $3.3 million. In two of the highlight transactions, buyers paid $58,300 for an 1834 half eagle graded MS-63 by PCGS and $42,900 for an 1870 half eagle graded Proof-65 by PCGS.

The year's third and final Long Beach Expo took place Oct. 4-8 and the California tax man showed up again, dampening enthusiasm at a show that otherwise might have been a smash hit.

Stack's helped restore electricity--and magic--to the marketplace Oct. 10-12, when it held its 60th Anniversary Sale, an auction extravaganza featuring the collection of Seymour Finkelstein. The prices realized were nothing short of phenomenal. A coiled-hair 1879 stella, cataloged as brilliant proof, brought $220,000--an awe-inspiring price by any measure. A choice brilliant proof 1846 eagle went for $55,000. And a choice BU 1848 "CAL." quarter eagle ($2.50 gold piece) realized $49,500.

I've had the good fortune of knowing Sy Finkelstein, the consignor of the collection, and I'm sure he is appreciative of the very strong prices realized by his coins at a time when market conditions were less than favorable. The results are a great tribute to the skill and professionalism of Stack's.

Late in the year, Stack's joined Rarcoa and David Akers in a joint sale called Numisma '95, which included some very important material. At press time, the results were not available.

One of the year's more interesting developments was the establishment of the First Token Grading Service in Amityville, New York, a company that grades and encapsulates U.S. tokens. The company's founder, Kevin Donahue, is a coin- market veteran who hopes to attract submissions from solid collectors. I'm told that items certified by the service will soon be included on the Teletype trading network. The firm's address is P.O. Box 515, Amityville, NY 11701.

As 1996 begins, the outlook for the coin market is uncertain. It's clear to me, however, that the future of our marketplace will be intertwined inextricably with developments in the Computer Revolution.

The United States Mint, the ANA and progressive coin companies such as Heritage have already staked out positions on the information superhighway, and more and more coin- market players are sure to follow suit as the Internet and on-line services assume ever-bigger roles in both the transmission of numismatic information and the transaction of coin-related business.

My own firm, Scott Travers Rare Coin Galleries, also has a home page on the World Wide Web, and I invite you to visit me there. My Internet home-page address is http://www.inch.com/~travers/travers3.htm (my E-mail address is travers@inch.com).

Come on in--the surfing's fine!



Scott A. Travers ranks as one of the most influencial coin dealers in the world. His name is familiar to readers everywhere as the author of six bestselling books on coins: The Coin Collector's Survival Manual, The Insider's Guide to U.S. Coin Values (annual price guide), One-Minute Coin Expert, Travers' Rare Coin Investment Strategy, The Investor's Guide to Coin Trading and How to Make Money in Coins Right Now. Mr. Travers appears frequently on television and radio and has served as COINage magazine contributing editor since 1984. He invites Coin Universe visitors to read free excerpts from some of his books.




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