The year opened with a sense of optimism: Bill Clinton was headed for the White House, and his gospel of change led many to believe that new economic policies would stimulate activity in the coin market. This positive attitude helped generate good feelings--and relatively brisk sales--at the Florida United Numismatists (FUN) show in early January. Dealers were generally quite satisfied with the level of activity at the show.

Heritage Numismatic Auctions of Dallas held a "bullet" sale in conjunction with the FUN show, featuring certified ("slabbed") coins, and a number of these coins did very well. A 1796 Bust quarter graded Mint State-63 by the Professional Coin Grading Service brought $26,400, for example--a very strong price. And a 1797 quarter eagle ($2.50 gold piece) graded About Uncirculated-53 by PCGS went for $23,100.

January was a month of important new arrivals not only at the White House but also in coin shops and bookstores. My new mass-market paperback book, "The Insider's Guide to U.S. Coin Values," made its first appearance that month, giving collectors and the general public, too, a major new tool for determining the value of their coins. The Dell book, now in its second edition, has a cover price of $4.99 and can be obtained for $6 postpaid from Scott Travers Rare Coin Galleries Inc., P.O. Box 1711, FDR Station, New York, N.Y. 10150.

In mid-January, Stack's of New York held Part 2 of its blockbuster Floyd T. Starr Sale, and this proved to be a smashing success, realizing a total of $2.2 million.

At the end of the month, Superior Galleries of Beverly Hills, California, conducted a three-day auction featuring the fabulous King of Siam Proof Set, and this turned out to be an $8-million-plus extravaganza. The Siam Set alone accounted for more than one-fifth of this total: $1,815,000 ($1.65 million plus a 10-percent buyer's fee).

The January auctions showed that the market had underlying strength. The widespread optimism continued to be tempered with caution, however, in the marketplace as a whole: Continuing a trend evident in 1992, trading of certified coins took place to a great extent on a sight-seen basis.

Toward the end of January, silver commemoratives started to strengthen noticeably, reinforcing the spirit of optimism. As the bellwether Long Beach (California) show approached in early February, the question being asked was not which coins would be the WEAKEST at the show, but which would be the STRONGEST.

To give you an idea of how well "commems" were performing, the 1936 Albany half dollar in Mint State 65 was up by about one-third over its level of a year earlier--from $422 on Jan. 31, 1992, to $560 on Jan. 29, 1993. The 1935 Connecticut half dollar in MS-65 was up even more--36 percent, from $590 in January 1992 to $800 a year later. Similar gains had occurred throughout the commemorative series, and they were quite impressive.

Commemoratives did well at the Long Beach show, and the show itself lived up to the high expectations. Dealers were buying what they needed and wanted for their inventories--as long as the coins met their expectations on an on-sight basis, and as long as the price was right.

A Heritage auction at the Long Beach show realized more than $1.2 million, and its bullet sale topped $600,000. Its offerings included an incredible run of $5 gold pieces, notably a 1909-S Indian in MS-65, which brought $28,050, and a 1910-S Indian in MS-65, which went for $38,610.

The FUN and Long Beach shows, and auctions held at those times, are looked upon traditionally as important barometers of coin market activity for the rest of the year. Based on the strength of these early-year shows and auctions, some market analysts foresaw a possibility that 1993 might bring a fundamental turnaround--a rekindling of the heat that characterized the market in the late 1980s. As things turned out, those early expectations were overly optimistic, but while the market didn't boom, it did perform reasonably well throughout much of the year.

The market remained steady as March began. Just about everything seemed to be in demand--including coins that appeal primarily to collectors, rather than investors. This heading encompasses coins graded Extremely Fine, About Uncirculated and Mint State-60 to Mint State-63, for example. More impressive auctions also were occurring, among them the March sales of Bowers and Merena Galleries and Stack's, both in New York City. Of special interest was Stack's sale of the exceptional Halperin Collection of paper money, cataloged by noted currency expert Martin Gengerke.

The outlook seemed bright as dealers prepared for the Early Spring Convention of the American Numismatic Association in mid-March in Colorado Springs. Then a cloud appeared on the horizon: Demand began to dip and minus signs began to appear in price lists, especially for mint-state gold coins, which up to then had been among the market's best performers.

By April, the earlier optimism had given way in many quarters to anxiety. In its April 16, 1993 issue, The Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter (or Bluesheet) posed the question: "Is the market at a turning point?" Some dealers responded, in effect, that the market was going to hell in a hand basket. Others were more sanguine, suggesting that while the market might indeed be at a crossroads, it seemed to be headed in the right direction. But clearly, a sense of concern had taken root.

The pessimism deepened as April gave way to May. Some coins were showing minor increases in value, but the minus signs outnumbered the pluses. One bright spot was a Heritage bullet auction held in Dallas, where a number of coins bucked the downward trend. Among these were an 1858 three-dollar gold piece graded Proof-65 by PCGS, which brought $7,150; a 1795 silver dollar, Bolender 14, graded AU-50 by NGC, which went for $6,160; and an 1888 gold dollar graded Proof-65 by PCGS, which realized $7,920. These prices were quite impressive in light of what appeared to be weakness in the marketplace as a whole.

Mark Yaffe of the National Gold Exchange in Tampa, Florida, helped keep the market in certified gold coins from stumbling too badly. In fact, his active trading--often involving coins imported from abroad--served as a form of positive reinforcement, not only breaking the fall but also giving prices a boost back up.

Observers looked to the May 21-23 convention of the Central States Numismatic Society, in Rosemont, Illinois, as the next important measuring stick for gauging the market's strength--and possibly its outlook for the second half of the year and even beyond. Around the same time, many began to sense that if there was going to be a raging bull market in either precious metals or rare coins, the stimulus would have to be political. Talk was being heard increasingly that the Clinton Administration would soon be encouraging a modest return of inflation--an economic environment that almost always benefits the coin market.

The inflation never really materialized, but $20 gold pieces started to rise in value just the same, driven by ANTICIPATION of inflation--and that boosted the coin market as a whole. The Central States show also gave the market a welcome boost. The bourse was quite active, and an auction held at the show by Rarcoa of Willowbrook, Illinois, realized a highly respectable $1.2 million. An 1838 quarter eagle graded MS-65 brought $25,300 and a 1931 Saint-Gaudens double eagle ($20 gold piece) graded MS-64 fetched $24,750, to cite just two of the more impressive prices.

The year's second Long Beach show, in June, was proclaimed a success, and rising bullion prices fueled activity and price gains in many segments of the market. This period also witnessed some significant auctions, including Bowers and Merena's sale of the Stetson University Collection, which realized $4.9 million, and a strong Superior sale, whose bottom line was $4.7 million.

Drift and doubt began to creep back into the marketplace in July, and the normal summer doldrums set in, too, as many market participants took vacations not only from work but also from buying coins. That gave added importance to the ANA convention in Baltimore, held at the end of July--and the show proved to be a resounding success.

Some 17,000 people attended the convention, making it one of the busiest in years. There was brisk buying and selling in the bourse, and the show's official auction, conducted by Heritage, produced some remarkable prices. For instance, an 1849-over-8 half dime certified as Mint State-68 by PCGS brought $20,350, and an 1878-S Liberty Seated half dollar graded MS-63 by PCGS went for $46,200.

The ANA show also marked the debut of a highly significant book on U.S. commemorative coins by Anthony Swiatek, the preeminent authority widely known as "Mister Commem." Swiatek's new book, "Commemorative Coins of the United States: Identification and Price Guide," seems likely to stimulate even greater interest in this burgeoning area of the U.S. coin market.

The extraordinary activity at the ANA show, coupled with the eyebrow-raising auction prices, led many to conclude that the bear market was over and the bulls would be in charge for the rest of the year, if not longer. Unfortunately, the up- and-down market took another unanticipated turn--this time downward.

As August rolled around, bidding grew weaker and a number of coins fell to new, lower levels--sometimes considerably lower than they had been just a short time before. The market was somewhat active throughout the month of August, but it really didn't have much leadership or direction.

In early September, the Greater New York Numismatic Convention--once one of New York City's most popular coin shows--attracted just a handful of dealers and hardly any collectors, either. While the market's weakness certainly didn't help, the Greater New York show also had a problem with new and potent competition: The East Coast Expo made its debut the very same week in Parsippany, New Jersey, under the co-sponsorship of NGC--and that drew a large and enthusiastic turnout. Among other things, the new Expo featured a series of well-attended educational forums conducted by preeminent commemorative authority Anthony Swiatek, award-winning newsletter publisher Maurice H. Rosen and yours truly.

As had happened so often all year, this positive development was counterbalanced by a negative one: The bottom fell out of the gold bullion market around this time, sending the coin-market roller-coaster on another descent. After having topped $400 an ounce just a few weeks earlier, gold skidded toward the $350 range. That, in turn, dampened enthusiasm through the rest of September and the first part of October.

It didn't take too long for the roller-coaster to pull out of its nose dive. On Oct. 13, Stack's sold a 1913 Liberty Head nickel owned by Texas entrepreneur Reed Hawn--and the winning bid made waves throughout the marketplace. Spectrum Numismatics International of Santa Ana, California, represented at the sale by Dwight Manley and Greg Roberts, purchased the famous nickel for the astounding price of $962,500--a hammer price of $875,000 plus the buyer's fee.

This extraordinary transaction was clearly the single biggest highlight of the entire year in the rare coin marketplace. And this success was reinforced the following night, when Stack's sold the Reed Hawn specimen of the 1804 silver dollar for an equally eye-opening $522,500.

These events were a testament to the auctioneering skills of Harvey and Larry Stack and their highly talented staff which put together the marvelous Reed Hawn catalog. And they put the market back on the right track as the 1993 roller coaster neared the end of the line.

It was a year of ups and downs, to be sure. But, on balance, the positive developments seemed to outweigh the negatives. And while the market wasn't yet booming at year's end, the spectacular Hawn Sale set the kind of tone--and created the kind of excitement--that could very well carry over in 1994.

If it does carry over, and if the general economy works in the coin market's favor as well, you'd better fasten your seat belt: We could be headed up, up and away in the year ahead!