First published: January 1994, COINage magazine
©1994 BY SCOTT A. TRAVERS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Sweet are the uses of adversity.
That's another way of saying that a bad situation can be
turned to good advantage--and it's just as true in the coin
market as in any other sphere of human experience.
The prices of many coins have declined in recent years,
falling to levels significantly lower than the last big
market highs in May of 1989. But nothing goes down forever,
and many of these coins are excellent candidates now for big-
league gains. In fact, quite a few of my current
recommendations are coins that have declined the MOST in
recent years, for they have the greatest potential to rebound
dramatically when the market turns back up--as it certainly
will.
As we contemplate the outlook for 1994, it's important
to remember that coin-market cycles don't correspond to
calendar years. Sometimes, certain coins can increase in
value sharply, then take a nose dive, all within the same 12-
month period.
With that in mind, I've compiled a list of a dozen
recommendations that I think will do very well in the year
ahead. But these aren't necessarily coins that will rise in
value and SUSTAIN those increases the longest. Rather, they
are coins that will, in my opinion, be among the most active
--and most popular--during the next 12 months. And as you
will observe, I recommend that you not only BUY them but also
SELL them soon afterward under certain circumstances.
As always, my comments apply only to coins that have
been independently certified in the designated grade or
grades by one of the two leading certification services--the
Numismatic Guaranty Corporation of America (NGC) and the
Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS)--unless I specify
otherwise.
Here, then, is my 1994 list of the "top 12 for the next
12 months":
(1) Three-dollar gold pieces graded Mint State-66.
This first recommendation is not aimed at those with
limited budgets. But for those who can afford them, these
coins are outstanding buys.
Three-dollar gold pieces, issued by the U.S. Mint from
1854 through 1889, are extremely rare and highly desirable in
this very high level of preservation. In 1989, they were
valued at $85,000 apiece sight-unseen, and retail
transactions were reported to have taken place for more than
$100,000. Today, you can acquire one for a mere $16,500. To
me, that represents sensational value. These are genuinely
rare, and you can obtain them for less than one-fifth the
price they were bringing just five years ago.
(2) Modern-issue coins.
I think we're going to see a lot of activity in modern-
issue coins during 1994. By "modern issues," however, I don't
mean current coins plucked right out of pocket change; I'm
referring to pristine examples of relatively recent issues--
primarily those produced by the Mint from 1934 through 1955.
These coins are being submitted with growing frequency to the
certification services, and we're learning that they're
scarcer than anyone imagined in very high grades such as Mint
State-66 and above.
I suggest that you check the population and census
reports that are published regularly by PCGS and NGC (and
available from those companies) and then seek out the coins
whose populations have increased the most. These are the
coins I recommend most strongly, since these are the ones
most likely to be promoted.
Be careful, though: A speculative bubble could very well
develop in this part of the market--and, if so, it could
burst. So although there is likely to be a great deal of
activity in these coins, there is no guarantee whatsoever
that your investment profits will be sustained. If you see a
profit of any kind in modern-issue coins, my highest
recommendation is to get out, go to the cash window and
celebrate.
(3) Saint-Gaudens double eagles ($20 gold pieces),especially in Mint State-65.
I think we're going to see a tremendous amount of
activity in Saint-Gaudens double eagles. There are strong
indications that 1994 could witness greater interest in gold
bullion--and as gold increases in value, people get very
excited about these beautiful $20 gold pieces, which are
widely and deservedly viewed as magnificent works of U.S.
coinage art.
In May of 1989, Saint-Gaudens double eagles graded Mint
State-65 by either PCGS or NGC--truly gorgeous examples of
this numismatic masterpiece--were trading for more than
$4,000 apiece. Today, these same coins are trading for a mere
$1,000--only about two-and-a-half times the value of the
metal they contain. Some may argue that the price was vastly
inflated in 1989; on the other hand, I contend that at $1,000
these coins are too cheap. And if gold bullion surges, you
can look for "Saints" to fly a lot higher.
(4) Type 3 Liberty double eagles ($20 gold pieces) in Mint State-65.
Type 3 "Libs" are those produced from 1877 through the
end of the series in 1907. They are distinguished by the fact
that the statement of value is shown on the reverse as TWENTY
DOLLARS, rather than the previous TWENTY D.
In May of 1989, these coins were trading for more than
$13,000 apiece in Mint State-65. Today, they're only about
$3,500--or barely one-fourth the earlier level. As in the
case of Saint-Gaudens double eagles, $20 Libs may well enjoy
a sharp increase in value if gold bullion shines in the
year ahead. It would be very easy for gold to go up $50 or
$60 an ounce--and if it does, the psychological boost could
push these coins higher by $1,000 or more.
Once again, such higher values might not necessarily be
sustained in the different kind of market we're seeing today.
My advice would be to go to the cash window and celebrate if
you see a significant increase.
(5) Supergrade coins.
Coins graded 68 and 69 are going to do extremely well in
the months and years ahead. Meaningful quantities have come
out of the woodwork lately and are now being incorporated in
the population and census reports--but this has only served
to underscore their genuine rarity. Simply stated, they're
few and far between. And as these new examples have emerged,
they're triggered greater interest, to the point where the
demand now exceeds the supply by an even bigger factor than
in the past.
We're seeing a number of people come forward who want
these coins for type sets--sets made up entirely of coins
graded 68 and above. My own firm, Scott Travers Rare Coin
Galleries Inc. of New York City, deals with a number of
people who are putting together such sets.
The most active supergrade coins will be those whose
populations have increased most significantly over the past
couple of years--in particular, Liberty Seated quarters with
motto in Proof-68 and Barber quarters, Barber half dollars
and, to a lesser extent, Barber dimes in Proof-68. All these
coins should enjoy a substantial increase in interest and in
value. If you see a spectacular increase--anything over 25 or
30 percent within a short period of time--I advise you to go
and take your profit. Such gains might not be sustained, and
the coins could end up settling at lower levels.
People who are fortunate enough to buy anything graded
Proof-69 may find themselves in a very enviable position in
1994.
A final note: Significant new tax advantages now apply
to charitable contributions, including donations of rare
coins--and this is going to be a particular stimulus to the
supergrade coins. I'll be writing about this in a future
issue of COINage.
(6) 1909-S VDB Lincoln cents graded Mint State-65 Red by PCGS.
This particular recommendation is limited to coins
graded by PCGS--not because the grading standards are
different between the two leading services, but because NGC
does not provide a grading guarantee on copper coins: Since
it believes they are susceptible to deterioration even when
housed in sonically sealed, tamper-resistant holders, it
declines to warrant them against such loss of quality and
grade.
Traditionally, the Lincoln cent series has been the
foundation of the modern numismatic marketplace, and the
1909-S VDB cent is the cornerstone of the Lincoln series.
This perennially popular coin will continue to attract great
interest, and I expect to see tremendous demand--feverish
demand, in fact--for those "ultimate" examples graded Mint
State-65 Red.
At present, such a coin might cost you approximately
$1,500. But if the demand increases as I expect, that figure
could jump appreciably. I've been trying to acquire some
specimens for clients, and I've had great difficulty finding
them. Be careful of this coin, though: Occasionally, inferior
coins make their way into MS-65 holders--coins with
fingerprints on them, coins with significant carbon flecks
and coins which, if you use your common sense, you can see
are not red, despite what the holder may say.
(7) Coins that have been certified by ANACS.
For years, I have been limiting my recommendations to
coins graded by PCGS and NGC, since those are the dominant
grading services--the ones with the greatest acceptance in
the marketplace. This year, I am modifying this stance and
also recommending coins that have been certified by ANACS, a
grading service based in Columbus, Ohio, and owned by Amos
Press, the company that publishes Coin World.
Surprising as this may sound, I predict that in 1994,
ANACS-certified coins will be a lot more fluid, a lot more
liquid and a lot more easily traded and easily bought and
sold than they have been in the last couple of years. There
are a number of complex reasons for this, but perhaps the
most important is that ANACS has maintained admirably
consistent grading standards and, as a result, has
established itself as a reliable grading service very, very
close to being in the same league as NGC and PCGS.
I think 1994 is going to bring significant new activity
for ANACS--perhaps a rise in its level of submissions, and
certainly a rise in the number of ANACS coins being traded in
the marketplace.
(8) Capped Bust dimes, small size, in Proof-66.
This is another recommendation not intended for those
with modest budgets. These coins, minted from 1828 to 1837,
are high-ticket items by anyone's definition--but the prices
on their tickets are a lot lower today than they were a few
years ago. Thus, I am including them in keeping with my
practice of recommending coins which have dropped in value
dramatically.
In May of 1989, a Proof-66 example of one of these coins
would have cost at least $110,000, with premium-quality
specimens bringing $150,000 to $200,000 wholesale. At retail,
that kind of specimen would have cost you a cool quarter of a
million dollars. Today, that same Proof-66 specimen would run
you a mere $50,000. It's highly recommended.
(9) Scarcer-date circulated gold coins.
Lately, we've seen unusually low premiums for so-called
"junk" gold coins--common-date coins in lower grades, whose
market value is based primarily on their bullion content,
rather than any premium as collectibles. For instance, a VG-8
(very good) example of a $5 gold piece dated 1916 would be
worth only about $100--very little more than its bullion
value.
If gold bullion were to increase in value even modestly,
and more collectors were to come into the fold, the value of
such coins could go up pretty dramatically. It wouldn't be a
big deal to see that 1916 half eagle climb from $100 to $125.
In fact, no one would even talk about it. Percentagewise,
however, that gain would be very impressive: a 25-percent
increase in value.
So circulated common-date U.S. gold coins--and scarcer
dates, as well--deserve a careful look. This is a good
opportunity, with the market a bit on the dull side, to go
out and try to find flashy, attractive coins.
One note: Often, these coins are uncertified, and I
wouldn't recommend that you get each of them certified; their
premium value doesn't justify that kind of expense. You might
consider submitting them for authentication alone, without
grading--but other than the possibility of their being
counterfeit, there's not too much of a risk.
(10) Indian Head eagles ($10 gold pieces) graded Mint State-66.
In May of 1989, these coins were valued at more than
$30,000. In fact, a beautiful, premium-quality specimen of a
little bit scarcer date might have run you close to $50,000
on the retail level. Today, the same coins are priced at just
over $7,500 each--although they've already started to move up
noticeably.
Be careful here, however: Sometimes, these coins can
appear scuffed up, especially on the reverse. If the reverse
appears to have problems, stay away from the coin.
(11) High-quality collector coins.
We're going to see a resurgence in this area, thanks in
no small part to the favorable donor policy promulgated by
the IRS, which is due to take effect in 1994. That's one
reason I earlier recommended the 1909-S VDB Lincoln cent in
Mint State-65 Red.
Among the specific coins I also recommend is the
venerable 1856 Flying Eagle cent in grade levels of Proof-65
and above. I think we could see this coin increase by upwards
of 30 percent--possibly as much as 50 percent--within the
next year in Proof-65. Once again, such gains might not be
sustained If you see a profit, take it.
The values for these coins, and all the others mentioned
in this article, can all be determined by reading my book,
"The Insider's Guide to U.S. Coin Values, 1994" (Dell
Publishing, $4.99).
(12) 1936 proof Lincoln cents.
The first of the "modern" proof cents--the scarce 1936
Lincoln--is a good buy today in either Proof-65 or Proof-64,
so I recommend both of these. Let your budget dictate which
you can afford.
In Proof-65 Red, the price today is $725--only about
one-fourth the $3,000 premium it would have brought five
years ago. But I think Proof-64 examples are real sleepers.
You can get a very attractive Proof-64 specimen today for
only about $115--and that's a tremendous value. Back in 1989,
the wholesale price was more than $300 sight-unseen, and a
really nice piece might have cost you $700 retail. The
current price sounds like a bargain to me.
Well, there you have them: my 12 recommendations for
1994. Only time will tell whether their potential actually
translates into profit.
Just remember this: What goes down must come up--and
what goes down the most has the most room to maneuver.
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Scott A. Travers ranks as one of the most influencial coin dealers in the world. His
name is familiar to readers everywhere as the author of six bestselling books on coins:
The Coin Collector's Survival Manual, The Insider's Guide to U.S. Coin Values
(annual price guide), One-Minute Coin Expert, Travers' Rare Coin Investment
Strategy, The Investor's Guide to Coin Trading and How to Make Money in
Coins Right Now. Mr. Travers appears frequently on television and radio and
has served as COINage magazine contributing editor since 1984. He invites
Coin Universe visitors to read free excerpts from some of his books.
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