Last Tuesday the strengthening dollar squashed the price of gold, but the precious metal has rebounded by $15 an ounce in the past week and continues to show strength in an uncertain economy as the dollar has reversed itself once more and is now showing weakness against the euro. As noted in this column two weeks ago this is leading to a "crummy flow" of gold out of Europe and potentially adding to the supply problems of a red-hot but coin-hungry market.
"There's no critical supply problem right now for PCGS MS64 and MS65 Saints, but an order for as few as 300 coins could definitely move the market," says Richard Schwary of California Numismatic Investments in Inglewood, California. "The price of gold is ratcheting up again and is almost certain to move higher, but the investors are still a little suspicious of this part of the market after the last fallback.
"The physical market is simply not as hot as it was before when gold was above $360 an ounce. The orders for 200 or 300 coins at a time just aren't happening. Even so, there is some activity and if gold surpasses $380 an ounce I believe the customers will be six-deep in the store once again. We aren't that far from seeing that scenario take place.
"The coming gold market is destined to be choppy," Schwary continued, "with higher lows and higher highs in each cycle. I still believe that gold is really cheap and the customers who buy gold coins now will be richly rewarded."
Overall market is still very strong in most areas.
"While 20th century coins are the strongest area of the market, you can say that the market is relatively strong across the board," says Steve Ivy of Heritage Numismatic Auctions in Dallas, Texas. "The PCGS Set Registry mania is the cause of a lot of this, of course, plus there is a tremendous number of new collectors in the market due to the Internet.
"The number of bidders at our auctions has skyrocketed," Ivy continued. "There were over 6,000 registered bidders at the F.U.N. auction, which is a huge number compared to a few years ago. There seems to be no evidence of a slowdown, either. Coins are doing much better than most collectibles and stocks have lost some of their appeal after taking money away from the coin market in the 1990s."
What coins seem to be the best value? "High end 19th century coins are hot but they're still cheap," Ivy noted. "Nice 63/64 quality coins from the 19th century are perhaps the most undervalued of all."
The future? "The future looks good. We are fighting the deflation scenario so hard that it is almost certain to lead to inflation. Coins do the best during inflationary periods."
Bowers & Merena "Sanctuary Sale" is next week.
The "Sanctuary Sale" from Bowers & Merena Galleries is less than ten days away and online bidding will only be accepted for one more week (through June 24) as the Mid-America Coin Expo approaches. To view the lots and/or to bid online, click here.
There are 38 pages of online selections for your consideration, and since each page features 50 different lots there is definitely something for everyone in the "Sanctuary Sale."
Bruce Amspacher has been a professional writer since the 1950s and a professional numismatist since the 1960s. He won the OIPA sportswriting award in 1958 and again in 1959, then spent eight years in college studying American Literature. This background somehow led him to become a professional numismatist in 1968. Since then he has published hundreds of articles on rare coins in dozens of publications as well as publishing his own newsletter, the “Bruce Amspacher Investment Report,” for more than a decade. His areas of expertise include Liberty Seated dollars, Morgan and Peace dollars, United States gold coins, sports trivia, Western history, modern literature and the poetry of Emily Dickinson. In 1986 he was a co-founder of the Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS).