It has taken seven long years to happen, but gold has returned to the north side of the $400 barrier and has begun inching towards its next goal, whatever that may be. It is not that the smoking rare coin market needed it, exactly, but it's a bonus, an extra impetus to push everything related to numismatics to higher ground. In some cases, such as key date coinage in popular series, some price levels are in previously unexplored territory.
"The market is really, really strong," says Marc Crane of Marc One Numismatics in Newport Beach, California. "Generic gold is absolutely on fire. MS65 $20 Libs are up $500 in the past three and a half weeks and up more than $750 since the end of August. MS65 $20 Saints are up $205 in the same period, MS63 $5 Indians are up $300, MS64 Saints are up 30% and the demand is incredible. If it's yellow and it's round there's someone who's clamoring to buy it."
What about the other areas of the market? "Anything that is beautiful is worth a ton of money," Crane said. "I wasn't around in 1978-80 when the market was so fabulous, but the dealers that I talk to say that today is even better, and I believe it. In addition, the market is friendly. Everyone is in a good mood and wants to do business."
The best deal in the market? It's the...
Is there any one coin or market segment that seems especially attractive? "MS66 Saints appear to be the best deal. In fact, it's almost as though they've been completely overlooked. They were $2,050 in late August and now they're only $230 higher. They could jump all the way to $3,000 in one day. In my opinion they're far and away the one area with the best potential for explosive growth," Crane continued.
Is bullion as hot as certified gold? "One California dealer related an incident from a couple of days ago. He kept selling coins all day, added it up and found out he was 7,000 Krugerrands short. Can you imagine being 7,000 coins short in this market? Luckily, he found a dealer in Europe who had a huge position that day and could sell him $2.8 million worth of coins in one transaction and bail him out. People want gold!"
Turning on the second switch.
"Remember when the 1804 silver dollar sold for over $4 million and the stock market peaked a couple of weeks later?" asked veteran dealer John Dannreuther of Cordova, Tennessee. "That was four years ago, believe it or not. It was like someone turned on a switch and the coin market began to hum. Well, they've turned on a second switch now. The market is still in control and makes sense, not like the F.U.N. show in 1980 or anything, but there's so much enthusiasm that everything is selling and everyone wants to look at coins."
It's obvious that gold coins are red-hot. What else is flying out of the showcases? "Everything is active, active, active. Dealers are definitely paying ahead of the market in order to get inventory. There is no slow season during the holidays this year. I went to Santa Clara with no expectations and had a great show. I'm sure that Baltimore will be even better," Dannreuther concluded.
Baltimore show is this week.
The Baltimore Coin & Currency Convention is this week and features the auction of the John F. Rindge and Alan J. Harlan collections by Bowers & Merena Galleries. Online bidding is available through December 4, December 5 or December 6 depending on the session. To view the lots and/or to bid, click here.
Bruce Amspacher has been a professional writer since the 1950s and a professional numismatist since the 1960s. He won the OIPA sportswriting award in 1958 and again in 1959, then spent eight years in college studying American Literature. This background somehow led him to become a professional numismatist in 1968. Since then he has published hundreds of articles on rare coins in dozens of publications as well as publishing his own newsletter, the “Bruce Amspacher Investment Report,” for more than a decade. His areas of expertise include Liberty Seated dollars, Morgan and Peace dollars, United States gold coins, sports trivia, Western history, modern literature and the poetry of Emily Dickinson. In 1986 he was a co-founder of the Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS).