Q. David Bowers
On the other hand, auction appearances represent only a tiny fraction of the total population of early dollars in various grades. Nowhere is this more evident than to point to certain varieties or die states of which Bolender was not aware, but yet are now known to exist in multiple numbers. 1798 BB-91 (Bolender-32) is an example of an issue discovered after the 1950 publication of the Bolender book. Several generations of numismatists-in the nearly three-quarters of a century from the publication of Haseltine's Type-Table in 1881, to Bolender's 1950 book-studied early dollars but were not aware of what we today call 1798 BB-91. The fascinating part is that now a dozen or more specimens have been identified, and one cataloguer estimated the population to be in the range of 20 to 30!
Drawing from the sources just mentioned, and others, I have derived estimates of the population of each variety in several different grade ranges. A typical variety is accompanied by an estimate summary similar to the following:
Approximate population MS-65 or better: 0 (URS-0)
Approximate population MS-64: 0 (URS-0)
Approximate population MS-63: 1 to 2 (URS-1)
Approximate population MS-60 to 62: 2 to 5 (URS-2)
Approximate population AU-50 to 58: 10 to 20 (URS-5)
Approximate population VF-20 to EF-45: 250 to 450 (URS-10)
Approximate population G-4 to F-15: 100 to 200 (URS-8)
Approximate population for all grades combined: 350 to 675 (URS-10)
CONDITION CENSUS: 63-60-60-55-55-55
The lower of the two figures, for example, 10 in the AU-50 to 58 range, represents the number of pieces I feel certain exist, based upon auction appearances, catalogues, the rarity ratings published earlier by others, consultations with specialists, my own experience, etc. The second figure, 20, represents an estimate of how many might exist, but which are not known or accounted for at present.
As was demonstrated by the earlier example of the previously unknown 1798 BB-91 variety, once specialists start looking in earnest, often many additional specimens come to light. It is likely as time goes on, that specimens in various grades will become more plentiful than we now realize.
The URS designation represents the Universal Rarity Scale estimate based upon the lower figure in the range, in this case upon an estimated population of 10 coins in the AU-50 to 58 range.
The approximate population for all grades combined is obtained by adding together the lower figures and higher figures in each range, and rounding them off for final figures. In this instance, the total of the lower figures is 363 and the higher, 676. This has been rounded off to 350 to 675, as giving the range as 363 to 676 would imply a precision that does not exist. Even a range such as 350 to 675 simply represents the total of my estimates (or, less kindly, guesses). If one could see and know all things, perhaps precisely 483 exist, or 1,382, or whatever.
As is true of the ratings given by other writers who have gone before me, my rarity ratings given in the present book will be a target for specialists and others to consider, and undoubtedly after they have been in print for a time, numerous changes will be suggested, possibly some of them dramatic.
Condition Census
A Condition Census rating has been given for each silver dollar variety. The rating consists of listing the numerical grading of the top six specimens known, reliably reported to me, or reasonably estimated to exist in private hands. Early dollars in institutional collections (the American Numismatic Association, American' Numismatic Society, Smithsonian Institution, etc.) are not included.
In some instances the Condition Census will include more than six, if the lowest number in the range has multiple coins. I will give illustrations of each instance:
1. In this hypothetical instance, it is believed that the finest known specimens of a given variety grade AU-55, AU-50, AU-50, EF-45 , EF-45, EF-45, EF-40, EF-40, EF-40, VF-30, and so on downward. The Condition Census would be expressed as follows: 55-50- 50-45-45-45, which lists the grades of the top six coins.
2. In this next hypothetical instance the finest known examples of a given variety are AU-55, AU-50, AU-50, AU-50, AU-50, followed by 22 grading EF-45, followed by 30 in EF-40 grade, and so on downward. In this instance the Condition Census would be expressed as follows: 55-50-50-50-50-45 (multiples).
The Condition Census has the advantage that the collector can determine at a glance the range and availability of the finest known pieces. It has the disadvantage that grading interpretations vary, and what one cataloguer or expert might call MS-60, another might call AU-55 or even MS-63. Because of this, the grades, including those given by the certification services, must not be considered as absolute. Time and time again I have seen coins of the same grade and certified by the same grading service, put side by side, and to my eyes one would be materially nicer than the other.
As noted, the Condition Censuses and the various rarity ratings represent examples reported to or known to me. Each year, estates come on the market, old-time collections are broken up, and coins otherwise sho up that have not been available for years. Even more relevant, coins that have never been attributed will come under the scrutiny of someone familiar with die varieties, and will be identified.
Because of these, over a period of time the Condition Census numbers will rise, as more high-grade pieces are found. If EF-40 represents the lowest grade in a Condition Census today, perhaps a decade from now the lowest grade will be EF-45 or AU- 50. The same is true of rarity ratings. If more coins are discovered, the rarity ratings will become more generous. Certain coins described today as having two or three known may be properly described as having four to six known later.
In other words, take my numbers with a degree of skepticism.