Q. David Bowers
Determining Trade Dollar Prices
The Price Charts by Date
For each date and mintmark variety of trade dollar in the individual date listings I list values in various grades. For market prices from the nineteenth century to and including 1985, I list the following grades: Very Fine (VF), Extremely Fine (EF), About Uncirculated (AU), Uncirculated (Unc.), and in the case of Philadelphia Mint issues, Proof. Further divisions are not given, as such terminology as MS-60, MS-63, etc., was not used in advertisements and auction listings for trade dollars until the 1970s, and not with any consistency until after 1985.
There was a renaissance in grading in 1986, with the tightening of interpretations by the American Numismatic Association Certification Service (ANACS) and by the newly-formed Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS). In January of that year, the American Numismatic Association Board of Governors announced that coins formerly certified as MS-65 by ANACS were now in some instances graded MS-60 to MS-63 under the new interpretations. For this reason, market prices and listings of the pre-1986 era are not directly comparable with those of 1986 to date. Because of this, I give different grading categories, including numbers such as MS-60, MS-63, MS-64, and MS-65, for 1986 and later, but not for earlier times. Between the 1985 listings and those for 1986 there is a "time warp," so to speak.
To illustrate this anomaly, consider the prices in The Coin Dealer Newsletter, December 20, 1985, for a common date or "type" trade dollar. At the time, these prices would have referred to issues such as 1875-S, 1876-S, 1877-S, and 1878-S. The "ask" price (what a dealer might ask on a wholesale basis for an average quality specimen of the grade) for MS-60 was $545, for MS-63 $1,550, and for MS-65 $7,000. The problem is that a coin graded "MS-65" in 1985 was apt to be downgraded to MS-60 to MS-63 the following year. Thus, listings for "MS-65" grades and, to some extent, even "MS-63" grades must be discarded when computing an average retail price for the time. I believe that an average Uncirculated common-date trade dollar in 1985, a coin in the range of MS-60 to 63, was worth about $950 retail. I use the $950 price in this book to represent the value in 1985 of a typical Uncirculated 1877-S trade dollar.
To further elaborate on the subject of inconsistency both in pricing and grading, I cite some specific examples from the 1985 public auction market as quoted in Auction Prices Realized, by Krause Publications. In that study, Uncirculated coins are divided into three categories: Gem Unc., Choice Unc., and, simply, Unc.
In the "Unc." category, realizations for the common 1877-S trade dollar ranged from a low of $65 to a high of $1,430! Listed in the order given in the Krause book, here are all of the realizations for coins sold in 1985: $478, $742, $770, $1,375, $550, $1,045, $1,210, $1,210, $600, $467, $330, $550, $1,430, $550, $660, $143, $220, $231, $990, $500, $575, $65, $440, $632, $1,375, $632, $825, $1,350, $1,375, $990, $990, and $700.
From the above, it will be seen that 32 coins are listed. The average price realized (the total number of prices, or $24,000, divided by 32) is $750.
If the top five prices and the bottom five are deleted from the above (in order to minimize the effect of anomalies), the number of coins falling in the middle range is 22, with a total value of $16,106, which computes to an average price of $732.09.
There were no 1877-S trade dollars listed as Gem Uncirculated in the 1985 data. However, the data include three coins which the cataloguers considered to be Choice Uncirculated, and which realized $825, $1,320 and $2,530 respectively.
As noted, for the year 1985 I suggested an average market price of $950 for a Mint State (Uncirculated) 1877-S. My listing of $950 was based upon the following considerations:
(1) Auction price averages.
(2) Dealer price listings, which tended to be somewhat higher than auction prices.
(3) A factor for some of the coins in earlier (pre-1986) listings being in above average Uncirculated grades, such as Choice Uncirculated or even Gem Uncirculated.
(4) Guide Book listings (the Guide Book represents an average of the opinions of dozens of different professionals ).
(5) Experience-the catch-all category including examples I have seen at conventions, notes taken on the series, and, in instances of infrequently traded coins, my ideas as to what coins might have been worth at the time.
I could have just as easily put $850, or $925, or $1,000 for the value of the 1877-S. In defense of this method, it is fair to state that no one else has any better price data on trade dollars or any other comparable nineteenth century series.
Among rarer issues of trade dollars, the auction data are insufficient to draw many conclusions. Take, for example, these listings for the 1985 market:
1873-CC: Just two were auctioned, an Unc. for $1,155 and a VF for $165.
1875-S/CC: Only two crossed the block, an AU for $1,540 and an EF for $247.
1876-CC: With this issue, more crossed the block, but nearly all were in circulated grades: Unc. $1,075, AU at $297 and $412, EF at $150, and VF at $165.
1877-CC: Just a few of these appeared: Choice Unc. $1,700, AU $200, and two in Fine, at $165 and $65.
1878-CC: More of these appeared at auction, simply because in circulated grade this issue has a higher price than other varieties; therefore, more were sold via the auction route: Unc. $3,080, EF $1,100, VF at $360, $495, and $500, and a solitary VG for $285.
Proofs sold at auction have varied in price within a given year. Continuing the example of the 1985 market, Proof trade dollars dated 1874 varied in price from $242 to $4,400. Unlike Uncirculated coins, in the Krause report Proofs were not divided into Gem, Choice, and "regular" categories. Doubtless, the $4,400 coin was in or near the Gem category, while the $242. piece may have had problems.
Going back in numismatic history to compile price data, it becomes evident to the market researcher that over the years many dealers and compilers of market listings have grouped all trade dollar Proofs 1873-1883 in a single price category, as a "type," without differentiation of rarity. From time to time, auctioneers considered the 1873 to be especially scarce, or the 1878 to be in the same category, or the low-mintage 1877 to be the key to the Proof series. However, there has been no consistency in this regard. Various historical auction prices (reprinted below) will enable you to see this for your-self. I believe "that once the information in the present book is disseminated, prices of rarer Proof issues (1873 and 1874 being examples) will rise. The rare coin market never has been predictable, and logic often is secondary to the effects of promotions and other factors.