Changing Trends

A recent letter from Roy E. Bonjour lamented that New York City, once a beehive of convention activity now draws relatively few coin shows. “Other than the International Coin Show in December and a show held in the spring there is nothing. What a turn around from the great days of the ’70s and 80s.” Mr. Bonjour went on to note that “I believe that the top collectors of Colonials are still concentrated in this area. Any significant collection should be sold here”—obviously from a subjective point of view.

This comment prompted your Editor to do some thinking. Times have changed, and the numismatic scene of 10 years ago or 40 years ago, or any other “ago” time, was apt to be much different than today. Of course, the same can be said about many other walks of life and areas of collecting and commercial activity.

Regarding coin shows, these tend to wax and wane. Today, the most important conventions seem to be the summer show of the American Numismatic Association and the winter show of the Florida United Numismatists. Between these extremes on the calendar there are numerous other events, some of which are as dead as the proverbial doornail, others which have activity ranging from lukewarm to, shall we say, moderate. There are very few “must attend” events. And, even the larger shows tend to be a bit stretched out and to wear thin after the first day or two or three.

Why is this?

As I see it, coin buying and selling has changed dramatically. Today we have PCGS, NGC, ANACS, And other certification services grading coins. Popular series such as Morgan silver dollars, commemoratives, and $20 gold pieces are encased in clear plastic holders and identified with a number, permitting instant inspection and, for many,instant evaluation. I tend to be a bit old-fashioned and think that this is just part of the story and that a holder marked, for example, “1891-0 $1 MS-64” doesn’t tell everything; the coin should be inspected for quality of strike, toning, and so on. However, I am in the distinct minority. Many people simply buy and sell “by the numbers.”

In any event, there is no doubt that having grading numbers on clear plastic holders saves a lot of time for everyone. Contrast this with the situation of 20 years ago when coins were housed in 2 x 2- inch paper envelopes and marked with a grade. An 1891-0 Morgan dollar might be marked “Gem Uncirculated” or something similar. However, upon inspection it could prove to be a polished AU coin, or a superb Gem (which we might call MS-66 or MS-67), or anything in between. Coins had to be looked at carefully, one at a time, and had to be taken in and out of their envelopes.

Today, if someone has a group of 100 Morgan silver dollars for sale in, say, PCGS holders, and they are arranged face up in a display case, I can go over them with my eyes and in just a few minutes’ time zero in on the ones that are in the grades I am seeking (to fill Want Lists or to add to inventory) or which seem to be reasonably priced. In contrast, if the same 100 Morgan dollars were offered for sale 20 years ago and were in paper envelopes, I probably would have to spend the best part of an hour viewing them. From this illustration it is understandable that what used to take three or four days to do at a coin show can now be accomplished in a day or even less.

In addition, the cost of attending coin shows has risen. Today anyone going to New York City to attend one of our auctions there, or to attend the coin show, is faced with the idea of paying the best part of $200 for a decent room in a nice hotel in the Uptown district, with some hotel prices costing in the $300 range. Parking is apt to run the best part of $30 per day, more if valet service is needed. The dinner tab for two in a fine restaurant easily challenges $100 and a bill for $200 wouldn’t be unusual and I’m not even talking about having anything in the way of fine wine or a six-course meal.

In other cities the cost may be less, but not all that much. Certainly, one cannot “save” by going to downtown Los Angeles or downtown Chicago. Costs may vary slightly, but anyone attending a convention of several days’ duration, staying in a nice hotel and eating good food, is going to spend thousands of dollars. One of our staffers recently purchased a ticket to fly from Boston to Cincinnati, Tourist class, and the bill was over $800 and this included staying over Saturday night. Several family members bought some tickets from Boston to Los Angeles, a run that used to have a lot of bargain fares, say $350 round trip, only to find that the cheapest fares were on the long side of $600, and no longer were there discounts for young kids (even a 2-year-old occupying a seat pays full fare). It can be seen that the numismatic event—whether it be an auction, a convention, or something else— that might have occupied several days or the best part of a week years ago, now is being telescoped in to one or two days of intense activity.

The advent of popular certification services plus the escalating cost of doing business in other areas has sharply increased the mail order coin trade. We have been in this aspect of the business all along, so this is just fine for us. However, if you were a collector on the scene 20 or 30 years ago, and were to go to some small town in the Midwest, chances are a glance at the yellow pages in the telephone directory would yield two, three, or four coin shops within a 50-mile radius. If you were in a big city, dozens might be available. Today, the numbers are much smaller—due to sharply increased costs for rent, advertising, insurance, salaries, you name it. And, I haven’t even mentioned the Internet!

With the preceding changes, which can be viewed as being good or as being bad, depending on your point of view, have come many things which are definitely in the “good” category. We have an information explosion, and anyone seeking to determine the market price of, say, an 1891-0Morgan dollar MS-64 grade can turn to "Trends" section of Coin World, "Coin Market" section in Numismatic News, to the Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter, to the electronic quotations and, heaven knows, other places as well. In fact, one could probably get a few dozen different quotations. Of course, the question arises as to which of these should be relied upon. This reminds me of the story in which a news stand operator was always being asked, “Do you have the time?” he then installed a large clock after which people would ask, “Is that clock right?” But I digress.

However, at least such figures give a ballpark average. Again, most popular price quotations have nothing at all to do with quality but concentrate on numbers. Within a given price category, high-end choice coins are apt to sell for more and low-end or ugly coins are apt to sell for less (except for investors who seem not to mind). Complicating the procedure further—although present readers who are serious numismatists will understand this—is the fact that some knowledge is needed as to which coins are regularly found choice and which ones are not. Thus, continuing our illustration of Morgan silver dollars, the chances are fairly good that a typical 1881-S Morgan dollar advertised as MS-64 will be attractive—lustrous, sharply struck, frosty, and brilliant— as most of them come this way. In contrast, an MS-64 1886-O or 1891-O can be an absolute dog, or it can be about average, but will very rarely be a superb, sharply struck, lustrous gem. However, unless one studies Morgan dollars carefully it would be impossible to know this from reading price quotations.

In summary, price quotations are very desirable, and it’s nice to have so many of them. However, one still must know the coin and also know the dealer in order to be sure that choice pieces are being obtained and at reasonable prices. Another advantage of the information explosion is the availability of so many excellent reference books. If you want to read about Indian and Lincoln cents, you can buy a dozen scattered titles on the subjects, some great, some not so great, but all contributing something. In contrast, 30 years ago information was very sparse. Walter Breen’s Complete Encyclopedia of U.S. and Colonial Coins is, indeed, a one-volume basic library, and although it is not exactly inexpensive ($125 list price for the latest printing), it contains information that is absolutely marvelous. In fact, if this information did not exist in book form and you wanted to obtain it, I can readily see a research budget of several hundred thousand dollars would not gather it all in! I remember very well the days in which information was very sparse; I had to rely heavily upon note cards and annotated books, but today I simply look in the Breen Encyclopedia for a quick answer. Of course, I still have lots of written files and, in recent times, a really huge computer file, but the Breen book remains central.

Today’s information explosion is resulting in a greater awareness for anyone who wants to become a coin collector. Niches and branches of numismatics once considered to be obscure may be still be off the beaten path, but certainly a lot of information is available about them, and more is constantly being added. In our recent sale of the Boys Town Collection there was a mad scramble to buy obsolete bank notes (generally a category of paper money produced before federal notes made their appearance in 1861), vignettes, and interesting numismatic ephemera and literature. In our most recent offering of the Eliasberg Collection in April 1997, there was a section devoted to Civil War tokens, medals, and related items which saw spirited bidding from beginning to end. It is an era of specialization. On the broader scene, this is perhaps why Montgomery Ward, Sears, and other general merchandise firms have fallen on hard times, or at least do not exhibit the growth patterns they once did. Instead, specialty retailers have taken away much. Consider Land’s End (one of our favorite places to shop by mail), of Dodgeville, Wisconsin, which sells clothes— not power saws, not automobile tires, not gourmet foods, but just clothes. From all I understand, they are experiencing record sales.

In our own hobby, niche groups are attracting a wide and ever expanding number of followers. A short list would include the Early American Coppers Club (specializing in U.S. large cents but containing information on colonials, half cents, and other related early issues), the Liberty Seated Coin Club (specializing in Liberty Seated coinage circa 1836-1891), the Bust Half Nut Club (a very specialized group concentrating on half dollars1807-1836), the Token and Medal Society (self-explanatory name), the Civil War Token Society (also self-explanatory), the Society of Paper Money Collectors (ditto), The John Reich Society (specializing in coinage designed by John Reich, especially issues of circa 1807-1839, but with many articles dating back to the first silver coinage in 1794), the Barber Coin Collectors Society (silver coinage circa 1892-1916), the Numismatic Bibliomania Society (out-of-print numismatic literature), the Colonial Coin Collectors Club, the Fly-In Club (we won’t tell you what this one is about), and more. With all these organizations, all these good books, and I haven’t even mentioned the great numismatic periodicals (CoinWorld, Numismatic News, The Numismatist, Coins Magazine, COINage, and others), one can enjoy numismatics to a great extent without even owning a single coin, token, medal, or piece of paper money! One of my great numismatic pleasures is reading about coins. Of course, owning them is fine also, but one can read about many more coins than one can ever hope to personally acquire.