Weekly Market Report: Modern Issues are Scorching Hot as Market Growth Explodes!

By Bruce Amspacher - July 11, 2001

Modern issues such as Roosevelt dimes continue to gain in popularity.

The modern rare coin market is growing so rapidly that it's time to take a look at the reasons. Yes, the popularity of the Statehood quarters program is a principal one, and that has been written about in this column many times. But is there something else as well?

"In 1998 it was estimated that two million Americans collected coins," says veteran rare coin dealer Robert Lecce of Boca Raton, Florida. "This was the lowest estimate since the end of World War II. The current estimate exceeds 50 million and is expected to top 100 million by 2003." If this is true, and the US population reaches 300 million in 2003 (as projected) then the average household will have 1.33 coin collectors! Suddenly a mintage of 500,00 to 3,000,000 coins for a modern Proof issue (depending on the coin in question) seems tiny rather than overwhelmingly large.

PCGS Set Registry coins continue to dominate market.

"The bull market in rare coins has begun," says Dr. Richard S. Appel of Oakhurst, New Jersey. "I'm talking about an across-the-board bull market, like we saw in the 1970s, not the specialized mini-bull markets of the 1990s where one area or another would make a short term move.

"At the present time the focus is on the more modern issues, and for good reason. The PCGS Set Registry is so wildly popular that collectors are having a wonderful time collecting and competing with fellow numismatists. In the old days it was Harry Bass in competition with some other well-heeled collector to see who could build the best set of gold coins. Now the competition is universal in all price ranges and the collectors can be recognized for their accomplishments."

What do you think about some of the prices that modern coins are bringing? "I think it's just fine," Dr. Appel continued. "This is a condition rarity market, and many of these coins are truly rare in top condition. I just sold a PCGS MS67 1959 Washington quarter for $7,500. Yes, that's a lot, but that coin is truly rare in superb condition. The late date silver quarters are a nightmare of bagmarks, wheelmarks [swirling marks left by coin counting machines], die polish and other problems."

So this market will continue? "A 1954-S nickel in PCGS MS64FS [full steps] just sold for $3815 in one of the Internet auctions. If an MS67FS example of this date becomes available, it wouldn't surprise me if it brought $25,000. The enthusiasm for low population coins in sets that can be completed will continue for a long time."

What about sets that can't be completed? "The market will spill over into Liberty Seated coins and other so-called esoteric areas," Appel continued. "It always does when relative values become too distorted."

Watch out for the "Revolving Riddler!"

Do you know what the "revolving riddler" is? Well, it's having an effect on the Mint error market, so it's time we all learned a little more. I checked in with Fred Weinberg of Encino, California, and here's the story.

"The supply of new Mint errors has dropped by about 90%," Weinberg said. "The reason is the revolving riddler, which is a new filter that the Mint has devised for catching Mint errors. There are fewer Mint errors coming on the market than at any time in many years, and it looks like the supply will remain small."

How is the Mint error market doing? "The market has been helped immensely through two important factors. One is certification. There is a tremendous comfort level for the error coin buyer through the authentication process. The second factor is the Internet. Not only are a lot more collectors being reached, they can now see the Mint error on a scan. When it comes to Mint errors, a picture truly is worth a thousand words."

Sacagawea mule sets new price record.

The world-famous Sacagawea dollar/Washington quarter mule that was discovered by Frank Wallis of Mountain Home, Arkansas, has set a new price record in excess of $60,000. This is the discovery coin of the seven pieces reported to date, and is certified as MS66 by the Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS).

"The previous price record was $56,350," Weinberg said, "and this sale definitely shattered that record. This will always be a special coin because it was the first one reported."

Bruce Amspacher has been a professional writer since the 1950s and a professional numismatist since the 1960s. He won the OIPA sportswriting award in 1958 and again in 1959, then spent eight years in college studying American Literature. This background somehow led him to become a professional numismatist in 1968. Since then he has published hundreds of articles on rare coins in dozens of publications as well as publishing his own newsletter, the “Bruce Amspacher Investment Report,” for more than a decade. His areas of expertise include Liberty Seated dollars, Morgan and Peace dollars, United States gold coins, sports trivia, Western history, modern literature and the poetry of Emily Dickinson. In 1986 he was a co-founder of the Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS).