Modern Commemoratives: The New Hot Market

Reprinted with permission from David Hall's Inside View issue #195.

Commemorative coins have always been very popular with collectors. Like all areas of the coin market, commemoratives have their hot and cold periods. Right now, modern, i.e. 1982 to date commemoratives, are hot (and the 1892 to 1954 silver issues are also doing well). In this issue of the Inside View we'll take a look at the red hot modern commemorative market.

Commemoratives - The Classic Era

There were 144 different silver commemoratives minted between 1892 and 1954. There was one quarter, one dollar, and 142 different commemorative half dollars. These 144 issues comprise what's now referred to as the silver commemorative market. There were also thirteen different gold commemoratives issued between 1903 and 1926, including nine gold dollars, two $2 1/2 gold pieces, and two huge $50 gold "slugs."

Silver commemoratives have been one of the coin market's most popular areas since the 1930s. Gold commemoratives of the classic era have only been modestly popular. Even after commemorative production was stopped in 1954, silver commems remained one of the market's mainstays.

Commemoratives - The Modern Era

In 1982, the U.S. Mint struck its first commemorative in 28 years, the George Washington silver half dollar. Thus began the modern commemorative era that continues today. Since 1982, there have been a total of 165 commemorative issues. There have been fifteen circulation strike and fifteen Proof silver half dollars. There have been forty-seven circulation strike and forty-three Proof silver dollars. There have been nineteen circulation strike and nineteen Proof $5 gold commemoratives, and two circulation strike and five $10 gold commemoratives.

In the past few years, several market developments have increased collector focus on modern commemoratives. First, the Mint's launch of the Statehood Quarter program has caused a tremendous increase in coin collecting with the general public. After beginning with Statehood Quarters, many new collectors have moved on to modern commemorative coins. The second important development was the rise of Internet coin trading. Modern commems are visually appealing and available in very high grades. They are a natural for the Internet and have become a favorite of Internet coin "newbies."

Finally, PCGS grading and the PCGS Set Registry program have added a lot of fuel to the modem commemorative fire. The bottom line is that this market is really hot and has tremendous momentum and a great future.

PCGS Grading and the Set Registry

PCGS grading has had a very positive impact on the modern commem market. Many thousands of modern commemoratives are submitted every month to PCGS. The submitters are mostly dealers who specialize in modem commems. They're looking for the MS69 and PR69DCAM grades. These ultra high grades are very desirable to modern commem buyers and the availability of coins in ultra high grades has added significantly to collector demand.

The PCGS Set Registry is also driving demand and prices for modem commemoratives. Collectors "register" their sets on the PCGS web site and then compete with each other to see who has the best set. This collecting competition is not only fun, it's very serious. The PCGS Set Registry has created tremendous demand for the highest grades and the rarest issues.

Modern Commemorative Strategy

Modem commemoratives are fun and exciting. They also have tremendous upside potential. Here's the strategy for maximum fun and profit:

1. Build sets. The best way to participate in this market is to build complete sets. Modem commems are collected by metal and/or method of manufacture. So the sets are either the silver halves and dollars, or the gold $5 and $10 issues. And the sets are put together as either circulation strikes, Proofs, or both. Any combination is fine!
   
   
2. Focus on the ultra grades. Buy coins graded MS69 or PR69DCAM by PCGS. Coins graded less than that are basically submitter mistakes. Buy the ultra grades exclusively. If you want to chase the ultimate MS70 and PR70DCAM grades and participate in the PCGS Set Registry competition, that's okay too. Just realize that the 70 grades are very pricey.
   
   
3. Buy PCGS coins exclusively. PCGS is the grading standard for the rare coin market. Modern commems graded by PCGS have the highest demand and are worth the most. Don't settle for second best.

The Modern Commemorative Market's Best Bets

I love the potential of all modern commemoratives. However, like all coin series, some issues are rarer and more desirable than others. Here's the rather lengthy list of the modem commemorative market's "best bets." I highly recommend the purchase of these coins in MS69 and PR69DCAM grades. I've listed the current price in those grades from the PCGS Online Price Guide. Note that PCGS grading is critical. Coins graded by other grading services are graded by less conservative standards and are not worth the prices listed.

Circulation Strikes:

1982-D Washington half dollar ($2,150).
This is the one modern commemorative that is extremely difficult to locate in MS69 condition. It is the only condition rarity in the silver commemorative market.

1995-W Torch $5 gold ($395).
The 1995 Olympic torch gold issue is very tough to locate. They are just not available in any meaningful quantities.

1995-W Civil War $5 gold ($475).
This is another issue that's tough to locate. The basic concept with modem commemoratives is that the halves are common, the dollars are better, and the gold issues are the best. Really, you can't go wrong with any of the gold issues.

1995-D Track & Field dollar ($140).
This moderately priced Olympic issue is much scarcer than the price indicates.

1995-D Cycling dollar ($150).
Another Olympic commemorative coin bargain.

1996-D Tennis dollar ($275).
A little more expensive than the previous two, but still a bargain for the price.

1996-D Paralympic dollar ($325).
One of the lowest mintage 20th century coins!

1996-D Rowing dollar ($300).
Another great Olympic commem.

1996-D High Jump dollar ($325).
Very low mintage for the price.

1996-W Flag $5 gold ($475).
We feel this issue is a super sleeper that's an amazing bargain at the price. This is a very difficult coin to locate.

1996-S N.C. S. dollar ($350).
This is a good coin and the price is quite reasonable.

1997-W Jackie Robinson $5 gold ($1,750).
Only 5,174 were originally minted. This is the rarest modem commemorative and it is the king of the modern commemorative series. With the great sports tie-in and its position as the key modem commemorative, this coin is assured of huge future demand.

1999-W Washington $5 gold ($350).
Tough, rare, and sells very well.

Proofs:

1984-P Olympic $10 gold ($475).
The Olympic $10 gold pieces are difficult to locate and demand is quite high. The Philadelphia and Denver Proofs are the best bets in the best bets.

1984-D Olympic $10 gold ($475).
See comments above.

1995- W Torch $5 gold ($285).
Like the circulation strike, this issue is very tough to locate in any significant quantity. The current price is extremely reasonable.

1996-W Flag $5 gold ($395).
This is one of the super sleepers in the modem commemorative series.

1996-W Cauldron $5 gold ($395).
This is a great coin that's very reasonably priced for its rarity.

1996-S N.C.S. dollar ($110).
This is a good coin and the price is really cheap.

1997-W Jackie Robinson $5 gold ($425).
This issue has been overshadowed by the rarity of the circulation strike. The Proof is actually very undervalued.

1997-P Officers dollar ($200).
This is a tough coin at a reasonable price.

1998-S RFK dollar ($99).
Lately, this coin has been virtually impossible for us to find. Definitely a sleeper and, at today's price, one of the real bargains.

1999-W Washington $5 gold ($395).
Like the circulation strike, the Proof is tough, rare, and sells very well.

2000-P Ericson dollar ($135).
This Proof is a sleeper!